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2.9% edge · Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds
July 27, 2026 · Martín Pérez vs Zac Thornton · 78°F
Atlanta Braves win
52.5%
New York Mets win
47.5%
Fair line (home)
+110
Proj. total
8.92
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Atlanta Braves (mean 4.69)New York Mets (mean 4.23)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
8.92
Over
39.4%
Under
50.4%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 52.5% | -102 | -110 |
| New York Mets | 47.5% | -106 | +110 |
Atlanta Braves — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 4.8 | .749 | .175 | .018 | .200 | .683 | .916 | .279 | .388 | .476 | .864 |
| Drake Baldwin | 4.7 | .739 | .152 | .013 | .208 | .439 | .855 | .262 | .337 | .451 | .788 |
| Matt Olson | 4.6 | .609 | .197 | .006 | .249 | .539 | 1.017 | .262 | .353 | .498 | .852 |
| Ozzie Albies | 4.5 | .722 | .191 | .008 | .134 | .309 | .612 | .254 | .314 | .401 | .715 |
| Michael Harris II | 4.4 | .781 | .181 | .024 | .186 | .195 | .805 | .280 | .316 | .468 | .784 |
| Mauricio Dubón | 4.3 | .786 | .186 | .014 | .085 | .253 | .521 | .267 | .314 | .384 | .698 |
| Austin Riley | 4.2 | .602 | .169 | .014 | .162 | .329 | 1.081 | .249 | .316 | .428 | .744 |
| Joey Bart | 4.1 | .578 | .123 | .008 | .114 | .365 | 1.129 | .227 | .311 | .360 | .672 |
| Jim Jarvis | 4.0 | .631 | .151 | .017 | .045 | .319 | .689 | .235 | .303 | .324 | .628 |
New York Mets — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Ewing | 4.6 | .807 | .196 | .027 | .085 | .461 | .988 | .272 | .349 | .395 | .744 |
| Francisco Lindor | 4.5 | .692 | .169 | .020 | .165 | .386 | .757 | .261 | .338 | .437 | .775 |
| Bo Bichette | 4.4 | .847 | .204 | .011 | .128 | .278 | .678 | .293 | .343 | .444 | .786 |
| Luis Robert Jr. | 4.3 | .625 | .162 | .008 | .164 | .350 | 1.064 | .248 | .317 | .421 | .738 |
| Francisco Alvarez | 4.2 | .563 | .150 | .008 | .192 | .379 | .991 | .244 | .321 | .443 | .765 |
| Jared Young | 4.1 | .593 | .159 | .011 | .150 | .379 | .890 | .252 | .332 | .426 | .757 |
| Tyrone Taylor | 4.0 | .580 | .180 | .021 | .113 | .199 | .802 | .242 | .292 | .394 | .686 |
| Marcus Semien | 3.8 | .572 | .133 | .015 | .123 | .342 | .661 | .243 | .315 | .397 | .712 |
| Luis Torrens | 3.7 | .565 | .156 | .007 | .087 | .244 | .759 | .238 | .296 | .364 | .661 |
Data notes: home starter Zac Thornton: only 29 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Zac Thornton: only 58 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections