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Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

July 29, 2026 · AJ Smith-Shawver vs Sean Manaea · 75°F
2.7% edge · Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves win
53.6%
New York Mets win
46.4%
Fair line (home)
+115
Proj. total
8.55

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

0%8%15%036912151821Runs scored
Atlanta Braves (mean 4.58)New York Mets (mean 3.97)

Totals

O/U line
8
Proj. total
8.55
Over
46.3%
Under
46.0%

Model vs. market

SideModelBookFair
Atlanta Braves53.6%-108-115
New York Mets46.4%-101+115

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
Ronald Acuña Jr.4.8.701.156.017.201.6911.035.265.380.460.840
Drake Baldwin4.7.698.142.011.208.468.946.253.335.441.776
Matt Olson4.6.570.191.007.240.5741.136.253.353.486.839
Ozzie Albies4.5.687.176.008.138.322.696.246.309.394.703
Michael Harris II4.4.747.178.022.189.197.891.274.312.465.777
Mauricio Dubón4.3.742.179.013.087.252.610.256.305.373.678
Austin Riley4.2.557.148.012.163.3391.194.233.306.409.714
Eli White4.0.586.117.028.115.2771.080.227.289.365.654
Joey Bart3.9.536.116.009.112.3671.176.223.312.358.670

New York Mets — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
A.J. Ewing4.6.735.171.024.077.4631.223.248.329.359.688
Francisco Lindor4.5.640.148.025.165.419.946.247.330.422.752
Bo Bichette4.3.773.191.011.129.293.860.275.328.424.752
Carson Benge4.2.658.142.022.121.3551.057.245.315.388.703
Jared Young4.1.537.148.011.154.3871.101.230.312.402.714
Jorge Polanco4.0.525.130.003.164.426.960.230.318.406.724
Tyrone Taylor3.9.527.171.018.112.212.990.227.279.375.655
Brett Baty3.8.540.121.010.117.3361.089.230.304.374.677
Francisco Alvarez3.7.465.119.007.168.3301.041.230.308.423.731
Data notes: away starter AJ Smith-Shawver: only 0 BF vs LHB this season · away starter AJ Smith-Shawver: only 0 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections