Miami Marlins vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

July 30, 2026 · Eury Pérez vs Nolan McLean · 72°F

0.3% edge · Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins win

46.3%

New York Mets win

53.7%

Fair line (home)

-116

Proj. total

7.89

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 3.90)New York Mets (mean 3.99)

O/U line

Proj. total

7.89

Over

47.7%

Under

40.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	46.3%	+113	+116
New York Mets	53.7%	-122	-116

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Liam Hicks	4.8	.766	.159	.016	.095	.565	.695	.251	.356	.366	.722
Xavier Edwards	4.7	.930	.139	.055	.038	.506	.702	.281	.363	.369	.732
Otto Lopez	4.6	.851	.182	.033	.089	.331	.749	.276	.335	.399	.734
Kyle Stowers	4.5	.537	.155	.029	.146	.457	1.455	.221	.313	.386	.699
Heriberto Hernández	4.4	.521	.144	.017	.147	.463	1.266	.216	.308	.377	.685
Griffin Conine	4.3	.514	.141	.010	.131	.428	1.459	.211	.300	.358	.659
Jakob Marsee	4.1	.515	.127	.032	.069	.524	1.016	.210	.323	.322	.645
Graham Pauley	4.0	.464	.157	.014	.089	.384	1.031	.200	.285	.325	.610
Joe Mack	3.9	.485	.127	.007	.101	.353	1.125	.204	.284	.331	.615

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.5	.699	.158	.024	.082	.486	1.219	.240	.326	.352	.678
Francisco Lindor	4.4	.611	.140	.023	.179	.447	.930	.245	.335	.430	.765
Bo Bichette	4.3	.747	.181	.011	.133	.306	.853	.269	.326	.421	.747
Carson Benge	4.2	.641	.142	.022	.125	.385	1.042	.246	.323	.394	.717
Luis Robert Jr.	4.1	.531	.134	.004	.155	.370	1.254	.222	.299	.385	.684
Brett Baty	4.0	.532	.120	.010	.123	.391	1.159	.219	.301	.361	.662
Marcus Semien	3.9	.531	.125	.012	.127	.377	.828	.227	.307	.378	.686
Jorge Polanco	3.8	.475	.120	.003	.149	.420	.907	.225	.319	.398	.717
Francisco Alvarez	3.6	.451	.109	.007	.168	.355	1.044	.226	.310	.418	.728

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections