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Miami Marlins vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

August 1, 2026 · Tyler Phillips vs Zac Thornton · 79°F
3.5% edge · Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins win
48.5%
New York Mets win
51.5%
Fair line (home)
-106
Proj. total
8.66

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

0%7%15%03691215182124Runs scored
Miami Marlins (mean 4.36)New York Mets (mean 4.30)

Totals

O/U line
9
Proj. total
8.66
Over
37.6%
Under
52.3%

Model vs. market

SideModelBookFair
Miami Marlins48.5%+118+106
New York Mets51.5%-128-106

Miami Marlins — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
Otto Lopez4.8.938.200.037.106.315.623.286.337.417.755
Heriberto Hernández4.7.621.169.021.188.4841.196.238.323.423.746
Liam Hicks4.6.772.155.017.118.498.549.264.355.398.753
Xavier Edwards4.5.926.138.040.048.415.562.283.353.372.725
Leo Jiménez4.4.668.178.009.086.358.896.240.322.355.677
Kyle Stowers4.3.536.163.027.179.3951.245.236.316.432.748
Javier Sanoja4.2.714.212.028.075.252.406.264.312.390.702
Esteury Ruiz4.1.575.163.027.092.347.972.236.316.372.688
Griffin Conine4.0.498.136.010.156.3751.216.226.307.403.710

New York Mets — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
A.J. Ewing4.6.805.187.028.082.499.977.269.352.388.740
Francisco Lindor4.5.703.168.026.167.456.730.267.354.448.802
Bo Bichette4.4.847.201.011.128.321.660.292.349.442.790
Carson Benge4.3.719.161.027.115.409.828.266.343.411.754
Jared Young4.2.604.174.012.140.438.892.251.340.418.757
Marcus Semien4.1.626.132.012.123.421.679.244.326.388.714
Brett Baty4.0.626.132.013.112.395.925.247.328.385.713
Tyrone Taylor3.9.564.177.021.103.228.792.241.295.388.683
Luis Torrens3.8.573.156.007.088.289.741.241.308.367.675
Data notes: home starter Zac Thornton: only 40 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Zac Thornton: only 70 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections