Miami Marlins vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

July 31, 2026 · Janson Junk vs Kodai Senga · 78°F

2.6% edge · New York Mets

Miami Marlins win

44.8%

New York Mets win

55.2%

Fair line (home)

-123

Proj. total

8.82

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 4.27)New York Mets (mean 4.55)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.82

Over

49.0%

Under

51.0%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	44.8%	+107	+123
New York Mets	55.2%	-116	-123

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Liam Hicks	4.8	.769	.151	.017	.119	.605	.654	.255	.361	.386	.747
Xavier Edwards	4.7	.935	.131	.057	.045	.544	.671	.281	.367	.372	.740
Otto Lopez	4.6	.849	.184	.032	.099	.369	.713	.276	.340	.406	.746
Kyle Stowers	4.5	.522	.168	.030	.185	.510	1.368	.229	.325	.427	.752
Griffin Conine	4.4	.522	.148	.009	.156	.484	1.476	.215	.309	.379	.688
Heriberto Hernández	4.3	.523	.141	.015	.162	.511	1.187	.225	.323	.400	.724
Jakob Marsee	4.2	.504	.132	.032	.085	.567	.990	.212	.329	.339	.668
Joe Mack	4.1	.512	.128	.009	.126	.387	1.125	.212	.293	.355	.648
Javier Sanoja	4.0	.630	.190	.030	.066	.285	.442	.252	.310	.375	.685

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.6	.835	.200	.029	.096	.375	.926	.277	.341	.407	.748
Francisco Lindor	4.5	.709	.166	.024	.185	.354	.697	.268	.339	.458	.797
Bo Bichette	4.4	.865	.207	.014	.142	.238	.620	.299	.342	.461	.803
Carson Benge	4.3	.729	.166	.027	.132	.316	.800	.270	.331	.428	.758
Luis Robert Jr.	4.2	.627	.166	.005	.168	.296	.977	.253	.312	.431	.743
Jared Young	4.0	.606	.163	.012	.159	.323	.815	.256	.326	.437	.763
Brett Baty	3.9	.638	.143	.013	.128	.310	.883	.256	.320	.410	.730
Jorge Polanco	3.8	.568	.138	.004	.165	.340	.702	.253	.326	.438	.764
Francisco Alvarez	3.7	.525	.132	.007	.188	.306	.826	.253	.322	.464	.786

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections