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Miami Marlins vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

August 2, 2026 · Sandy Alcantara vs Robert Stock · 79°F
8.9% edge · New York Mets
Miami Marlins win
43.1%
New York Mets win
56.9%
Fair line (home)
-132
Proj. total
8.61

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

0%7%15%036912151821Runs scored
Miami Marlins (mean 4.10)New York Mets (mean 4.51)

Totals

O/U line
9
Proj. total
8.61
Over
37.4%
Under
52.4%

Model vs. market

SideModelBookFair
Miami Marlins43.1%-113+132
New York Mets56.9%+104-132

Miami Marlins — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
Liam Hicks4.8.787.156.015.109.540.671.255.354.378.732
Kyle Stowers4.7.571.166.035.176.4691.465.228.318.412.730
Otto Lopez4.6.850.197.032.093.322.698.278.335.406.741
Xavier Edwards4.5.888.134.057.042.462.635.281.360.375.734
Griffin Conine4.4.533.149.011.155.4241.460.217.302.380.683
Owen Caissie4.3.527.161.009.145.4011.493.220.301.380.681
Jakob Marsee4.2.531.132.034.076.518.985.217.327.336.664
Joe Mack4.0.520.129.010.126.3501.119.214.289.358.648
Javier Sanoja3.9.656.192.030.063.268.440.259.314.381.695

New York Mets — projected lines

BatterPA1B2B3BHRBBKAVGOBPSLGOPS
A.J. Ewing4.6.841.204.029.085.420.973.278.349.402.751
Francisco Lindor4.5.727.170.028.165.387.741.271.347.449.797
Bo Bichette4.4.873.209.013.128.271.657.299.347.450.797
Carson Benge4.3.744.171.024.114.340.833.270.336.414.751
Luis Robert Jr.4.2.642.172.006.157.3241.043.256.321.428.749
Jared Young4.1.609.162.013.148.359.879.255.332.428.761
Marcus Semien4.0.615.138.014.132.341.656.250.319.406.724
Jorge Polanco3.9.569.139.004.158.375.736.253.332.433.765
Francisco Alvarez3.7.530.132.007.167.312.870.248.319.439.758
Data notes: home starter Robert Stock: only 0 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Robert Stock: only 0 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections