Washington Nationals vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

August 14, 2026 · Andrew Alvarez vs Robert Stock · 82°F

7.6% edge · New York Mets

Washington Nationals win

40.0%

New York Mets win

60.0%

Fair line (home)

-150

Proj. total

8.44

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 3.82)New York Mets (mean 4.62)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.44

Over

45.4%

Under

54.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	40.0%	+106	+150
New York Mets	60.0%	-114	-150

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
CJ Abrams	4.7	.677	.191	.029	.171	.362	.966	.251	.326	.430	.756
Abimelec Ortiz	4.6	.573	.172	.009	.163	.394	1.174	.220	.297	.384	.681
Brady House	4.5	.691	.172	.008	.132	.234	1.251	.237	.283	.376	.659
Daylen Lile	4.4	.726	.187	.057	.098	.296	.795	.264	.322	.412	.735
Keibert Ruiz	4.3	.706	.175	.004	.118	.220	.541	.250	.299	.385	.683
José Tena	4.2	.650	.178	.026	.091	.317	1.124	.246	.309	.378	.687
Nasim Nuñez	4.1	.660	.087	.033	.040	.427	.988	.227	.313	.302	.616
Jorbit Vivas	4.0	.599	.155	.007	.060	.407	.607	.237	.331	.337	.668
Jacob Young	3.8	.648	.141	.020	.059	.271	.759	.247	.311	.349	.661

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.7	.833	.197	.032	.083	.519	.976	.279	.363	.402	.765
Francisco Lindor	4.5	.732	.176	.019	.155	.430	.739	.269	.353	.438	.792
Bo Bichette	4.4	.863	.212	.014	.128	.331	.648	.299	.356	.452	.807
Luis Robert Jr.	4.3	.660	.174	.006	.149	.405	1.051	.255	.332	.419	.751
Carson Benge	4.2	.722	.172	.024	.116	.410	.788	.274	.353	.425	.778
Francisco Alvarez	4.1	.579	.151	.007	.181	.418	.938	.251	.336	.445	.781
Marcus Semien	4.0	.614	.141	.015	.121	.418	.636	.250	.333	.401	.734
Jared Young	3.9	.563	.166	.013	.143	.410	.815	.258	.348	.439	.787
Luis Torrens	3.8	.600	.169	.008	.089	.277	.738	.250	.313	.381	.695

Data notes: home starter Robert Stock: only 28 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Robert Stock: only 13 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections