Washington Nationals vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

August 16, 2026 · Jake Irvin vs Christian Scott · 72°F

0.6% edge · New York Mets

Washington Nationals win

39.3%

New York Mets win

60.8%

Fair line (home)

-155

Proj. total

8.55

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 3.88)New York Mets (mean 4.67)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.55

Over

46.9%

Under

53.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	39.3%	+146	+155
New York Mets	60.8%	-159	-155

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
CJ Abrams	4.7	.646	.178	.028	.191	.344	.990	.246	.316	.436	.752
Abimelec Ortiz	4.6	.549	.152	.009	.177	.390	1.181	.215	.292	.385	.677
Dylan Crews	4.5	.619	.153	.018	.145	.318	1.099	.229	.295	.381	.676
Daylen Lile	4.3	.696	.181	.049	.113	.298	.829	.259	.318	.414	.732
Brady House	4.3	.633	.160	.008	.137	.211	1.238	.233	.277	.379	.656
Jorbit Vivas	4.1	.633	.155	.008	.073	.417	.656	.238	.331	.346	.676
Andrés Chaparro	4.0	.508	.164	.004	.144	.347	1.041	.224	.298	.389	.688
Keibert Ruiz	3.9	.641	.161	.003	.111	.194	.522	.249	.295	.385	.680
Jacob Young	3.8	.607	.132	.017	.064	.274	.764	.236	.301	.340	.641

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.6	.833	.197	.030	.090	.451	.967	.278	.353	.405	.759
Francisco Lindor	4.5	.708	.166	.025	.190	.425	.734	.272	.354	.469	.823
Bo Bichette	4.4	.843	.206	.013	.152	.294	.668	.298	.350	.468	.818
Carson Benge	4.3	.741	.167	.025	.135	.365	.817	.275	.345	.436	.781
Jared Young	4.2	.609	.167	.013	.170	.397	.888	.257	.340	.446	.785
Luis Robert Jr.	4.1	.601	.154	.006	.166	.346	1.006	.251	.322	.431	.753
Brett Baty	4.0	.638	.145	.013	.133	.359	.925	.259	.331	.418	.749
Jorge Polanco	3.9	.572	.142	.003	.168	.417	.724	.259	.345	.450	.795
Luis Torrens	3.8	.580	.170	.009	.098	.252	.751	.248	.308	.387	.695

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections