San Diego Padres vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

August 17, 2026 · Walker Buehler vs Nolan McLean · 76°F

2.1% edge · New York Mets

San Diego Padres win

45.7%

New York Mets win

54.3%

Fair line (home)

-119

Proj. total

8.76

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 4.30)New York Mets (mean 4.46)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.76

Over

47.5%

Under

44.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	45.7%	+105	+119
New York Mets	54.3%	-114	-119

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.8	.760	.199	.013	.160	.556	1.030	.268	.361	.435	.796
Jake Cronenworth	4.7	.635	.167	.015	.091	.559	1.022	.224	.334	.340	.673
Manny Machado	4.6	.664	.179	.004	.178	.473	1.023	.248	.329	.423	.752
Ty France	4.5	.695	.159	.015	.108	.313	.993	.243	.323	.370	.694
Jackson Merrill	4.4	.648	.176	.029	.132	.334	1.045	.244	.307	.401	.708
Luis Campusano	4.3	.626	.163	.005	.126	.468	.940	.244	.335	.390	.725
Gavin Sheets	4.2	.554	.165	.005	.126	.416	.938	.229	.316	.378	.694
Xander Bogaerts	4.1	.679	.155	.003	.085	.412	.792	.255	.338	.370	.708
Luis Rengifo	4.0	.656	.134	.015	.076	.300	.731	.244	.310	.352	.663

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.6	.787	.191	.029	.089	.503	1.057	.268	.353	.394	.746
Francisco Lindor	4.5	.676	.153	.021	.178	.445	.809	.258	.346	.442	.788
Bo Bichette	4.4	.819	.201	.009	.127	.322	.717	.285	.343	.434	.777
Carson Benge	4.3	.692	.160	.024	.116	.396	.922	.257	.334	.401	.735
Luis Robert Jr.	4.2	.606	.158	.005	.153	.365	1.112	.243	.317	.409	.726
Jared Young	4.1	.566	.162	.014	.150	.413	.924	.246	.334	.423	.757
Marcus Semien	4.0	.572	.134	.016	.123	.401	.728	.237	.319	.388	.707
Jorge Polanco	3.9	.540	.125	.005	.158	.437	.809	.243	.335	.422	.757
Francisco Alvarez	3.8	.506	.124	.008	.170	.373	.947	.242	.326	.437	.763

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections