Washington Nationals vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

August 15, 2026 · Brad Lord vs Sean Manaea · 81°F

4.7% edge · New York Mets

Washington Nationals win

39.2%

New York Mets win

60.8%

Fair line (home)

-155

Proj. total

8.57

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 3.88)New York Mets (mean 4.69)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.57

Over

46.6%

Under

45.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	39.2%	+123	+155
New York Mets	60.8%	-134	-155

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dylan Crews	4.7	.667	.172	.019	.162	.344	1.102	.237	.304	.399	.703
Andrés Chaparro	4.6	.594	.192	.006	.181	.431	1.131	.236	.315	.417	.732
Brady House	4.5	.681	.168	.009	.149	.240	1.250	.238	.285	.388	.673
CJ Abrams	4.4	.615	.180	.027	.177	.335	.885	.252	.327	.446	.772
Harry Ford	4.3	.540	.148	.006	.093	.516	1.143	.212	.319	.330	.649
Jacob Young	4.2	.683	.160	.023	.076	.292	.802	.246	.311	.360	.671
Daylen Lile	4.1	.640	.167	.051	.108	.285	.722	.259	.320	.418	.737
Nasim Nuñez	4.0	.636	.088	.021	.044	.402	.957	.224	.309	.298	.607
Andrew Pinckney	3.8	.572	.103	.013	.103	.266	1.232	.225	.289	.349	.638

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.7	.818	.200	.026	.080	.485	1.005	.272	.353	.392	.745
Francisco Lindor	4.5	.713	.168	.024	.180	.438	.768	.271	.356	.460	.816
Bo Bichette	4.4	.863	.206	.012	.136	.311	.696	.298	.353	.455	.808
Carson Benge	4.3	.735	.162	.024	.123	.390	.864	.269	.343	.419	.762
Jared Young	4.2	.608	.168	.014	.154	.414	.929	.254	.339	.430	.770
Marcus Semien	4.1	.625	.141	.014	.132	.403	.692	.248	.328	.402	.730
Brett Baty	4.0	.613	.152	.011	.122	.369	.950	.250	.326	.400	.726
Jorge Polanco	3.9	.555	.144	.003	.163	.417	.746	.253	.340	.439	.779
Francisco Alvarez	3.8	.519	.143	.008	.185	.365	.865	.255	.336	.468	.804

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections