San Diego Padres vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

August 19, 2026 · Michael King vs Robert Stock · 85°F

4.0% edge · New York Mets

San Diego Padres win

52.0%

New York Mets win

48.0%

Fair line (home)

+108

Proj. total

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 4.69)New York Mets (mean 4.31)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

Over

50.8%

Under

49.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	52.0%	-134	-108
New York Mets	48.0%	+123	+108

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Michael King RHP · San Diego Padres	5.2	5.0	5.3	2.0	2.5
Robert Stock RHP · New York Mets	4.6	3.8	4.7	1.8	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Michael King4+ 75%6+ 38%8+ 11%

Robert Stock4+ 52%6+ 17%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.9	.749	.200	.014	.218	.554	.925	.278	.368	.485	.853
Jake Cronenworth	4.8	.660	.179	.014	.114	.535	.951	.235	.339	.368	.707
Manny Machado	4.7	.671	.175	.004	.214	.460	.942	.256	.334	.453	.787
Ty France	4.5	.708	.172	.015	.148	.318	.909	.258	.337	.417	.754
Jackson Merrill	4.4	.655	.179	.029	.183	.315	.955	.257	.316	.450	.766
Luis Rengifo	4.3	.720	.143	.013	.100	.339	.740	.249	.317	.368	.685
Luis Campusano	4.2	.610	.154	.005	.164	.445	.866	.251	.338	.427	.765
Xander Bogaerts	4.1	.663	.148	.004	.105	.433	.718	.254	.340	.384	.724
Sung-Mun Song	4.0	.651	.135	.009	.082	.331	.725	.241	.307	.350	.657

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.6	.747	.185	.027	.088	.449	1.156	.254	.332	.376	.708
Francisco Lindor	4.5	.643	.155	.022	.188	.449	.893	.255	.343	.448	.791
Bo Bichette	4.4	.787	.182	.013	.139	.329	.799	.278	.336	.433	.769
Carson Benge	4.3	.681	.148	.024	.145	.370	.968	.259	.332	.423	.755
Jared Young	4.2	.568	.153	.023	.177	.388	.990	.248	.330	.444	.774
Francisco Alvarez	4.1	.495	.133	.005	.205	.421	1.143	.233	.321	.444	.765
Brett Baty	4.0	.568	.124	.011	.135	.358	1.082	.235	.310	.390	.700
Marcus Semien	3.9	.507	.122	.012	.142	.370	.784	.227	.307	.393	.700
Luis Torrens	3.7	.530	.140	.006	.117	.279	.849	.233	.300	.381	.681

Data notes: home starter Robert Stock: only 44 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Robert Stock: only 18 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections