San Diego Padres vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

August 18, 2026 · Robbie Ray vs Zac Thornton · 79°F

2.2% edge · New York Mets

San Diego Padres win

50.0%

New York Mets win

50.0%

Fair line (home)

+100

Proj. total

8.72

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 4.47)New York Mets (mean 4.25)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.72

Over

48.3%

Under

51.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	50.0%	-114	-100
New York Mets	50.0%	+105	+100

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Robbie Ray LHP · San Diego Padres	5.2	5.1	5.2	2.2	2.6
Zac Thornton LHP · New York Mets	5.1	3.6	5.3	1.7	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Robbie Ray4+ 72%6+ 41%8+ 17%

Zac Thornton4+ 48%6+ 18%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.8	.790	.208	.015	.195	.499	.852	.283	.364	.476	.840
Luis Rengifo	4.7	.826	.162	.012	.098	.304	.719	.252	.308	.363	.670
Manny Machado	4.6	.673	.182	.002	.212	.437	.868	.259	.332	.458	.790
Ty France	4.5	.718	.170	.016	.140	.288	.832	.256	.325	.409	.734
Jackson Merrill	4.4	.665	.192	.029	.153	.302	.887	.257	.312	.432	.743
Xander Bogaerts	4.3	.735	.178	.004	.109	.393	.696	.267	.339	.400	.739
Austin Hays	4.2	.594	.163	.028	.132	.284	.987	.239	.298	.399	.698
Freddy Fermin	4.0	.631	.154	.006	.098	.323	.750	.241	.307	.365	.672
Jake Cronenworth	3.9	.544	.146	.015	.097	.433	.740	.234	.332	.370	.701

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.6	.665	.152	.018	.189	.435	.900	.251	.335	.436	.772
Bo Bichette	4.5	.819	.201	.011	.144	.334	.798	.285	.342	.443	.785
Luis Robert Jr.	4.4	.594	.160	.005	.175	.414	1.232	.238	.316	.414	.730
Carson Benge	4.3	.660	.151	.023	.133	.421	.954	.253	.333	.410	.742
Francisco Alvarez	4.2	.527	.135	.009	.199	.421	1.101	.234	.319	.436	.755
Christopher Morel	4.1	.466	.136	.009	.172	.449	1.301	.218	.312	.405	.716
Marcus Semien	4.0	.565	.133	.013	.140	.406	.769	.241	.323	.406	.729
A.J. Ewing	3.8	.617	.147	.021	.071	.428	.953	.253	.341	.372	.713
Luis Torrens	3.7	.524	.154	.007	.093	.289	.858	.229	.297	.361	.658

Data notes: home starter Zac Thornton: only 61 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections