Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

August 25, 2026 · Kyle Harrison vs Zac Thornton · 77°F

8.0% edge · New York Mets

Milwaukee Brewers win

51.8%

New York Mets win

48.2%

Fair line (home)

+107

Proj. total

8.49

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.45)New York Mets (mean 4.04)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.49

Over

54.0%

Under

46.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	51.8%	-156	-107
New York Mets	48.2%	+144	+107

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Kyle Harrison LHP · Milwaukee Brewers	4.7	4.8	4.4	1.6	2.0
Zac Thornton LHP · New York Mets	5.0	3.7	5.2	1.9	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Kyle Harrison4+ 73%6+ 35%8+ 10%

Zac Thornton4+ 52%6+ 17%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Chourio	4.8	.747	.233	.017	.208	.369	.956	.271	.331	.472	.803
Brice Turang	4.7	.747	.181	.019	.127	.500	.980	.255	.336	.397	.734
William Contreras	4.6	.760	.179	.007	.147	.531	.713	.270	.358	.426	.784
Andrew Vaughn	4.5	.679	.189	.017	.156	.378	.781	.255	.325	.424	.748
Gary Sánchez	4.4	.515	.123	.016	.211	.495	1.003	.225	.324	.430	.753
Luis Lara	4.3	.703	.149	.020	.060	.406	.822	.242	.322	.338	.660
Garrett Mitchell	4.2	.571	.167	.024	.118	.467	1.225	.239	.331	.393	.724
Joey Ortiz	4.1	.634	.161	.024	.091	.345	.678	.246	.314	.376	.690
Cooper Pratt	4.0	.585	.127	.028	.082	.371	.734	.231	.310	.352	.662

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.5	.635	.149	.016	.198	.422	.943	.248	.333	.440	.773
Bo Bichette	4.4	.801	.192	.014	.139	.314	.849	.280	.335	.435	.770
Carson Benge	4.3	.688	.145	.024	.139	.365	1.013	.254	.325	.410	.735
Luis Robert Jr.	4.2	.557	.142	.005	.167	.351	1.271	.227	.299	.396	.695
Eric Wagaman	4.1	.583	.160	.019	.121	.310	1.030	.232	.294	.380	.674
Jared Young	4.0	.529	.143	.021	.165	.371	.986	.239	.321	.429	.751
Marcus Semien	3.9	.528	.122	.011	.142	.355	.825	.228	.304	.390	.693
Luis Torrens	3.8	.540	.150	.007	.113	.267	.864	.233	.295	.377	.673
A.J. Ewing	3.7	.582	.141	.020	.067	.347	.965	.246	.322	.362	.684

Data notes: home starter Zac Thornton: only 66 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections