Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

August 26, 2026 · Dustin May vs Robert Stock · 74°F

11.9% edge · New York Mets

Milwaukee Brewers win

46.4%

New York Mets win

53.6%

Fair line (home)

-115

Proj. total

8.38

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.14)New York Mets (mean 4.24)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.38

Over

45.0%

Under

55.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	46.4%	-147	+115
New York Mets	53.6%	+135	-115

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Dustin May RHP · Milwaukee Brewers	4.9	4.9	4.9	1.9	2.3
Robert Stock RHP · New York Mets	4.5	4.1	4.4	2.0	1.9

Strikeout ladder

Dustin May4+ 74%6+ 38%8+ 11%

Robert Stock4+ 60%6+ 22%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sal Frelick	4.8	.842	.190	.017	.083	.445	.651	.260	.336	.369	.706
Garrett Mitchell	4.7	.635	.184	.025	.116	.572	1.465	.234	.336	.376	.712
Brice Turang	4.6	.701	.171	.015	.114	.532	1.071	.246	.336	.380	.717
Christian Yelich	4.5	.657	.153	.013	.134	.540	1.141	.244	.342	.391	.733
William Contreras	4.4	.695	.174	.006	.132	.532	.758	.262	.357	.414	.771
Luis Lara	4.3	.688	.146	.028	.058	.460	.891	.243	.332	.342	.674
Andrew Vaughn	4.2	.602	.171	.015	.134	.375	.808	.245	.324	.405	.729
David Hamilton	4.1	.538	.118	.026	.095	.388	1.029	.213	.293	.337	.630
Cooper Pratt	4.0	.569	.122	.028	.072	.392	.819	.224	.310	.336	.646

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.6	.761	.188	.021	.080	.433	1.144	.255	.331	.369	.700
Francisco Lindor	4.5	.643	.141	.023	.176	.446	.881	.249	.339	.431	.770
Bo Bichette	4.4	.795	.191	.015	.132	.314	.794	.282	.338	.435	.773
Carson Benge	4.3	.707	.154	.026	.128	.350	.946	.264	.335	.417	.752
Jared Young	4.2	.583	.160	.023	.156	.381	.981	.249	.332	.432	.763
Luis Robert Jr.	4.0	.555	.141	.005	.154	.340	1.165	.234	.307	.402	.709
Brett Baty	3.9	.559	.122	.011	.126	.358	1.077	.231	.307	.378	.685
Marcus Semien	3.8	.518	.119	.010	.128	.368	.758	.227	.307	.380	.687
Francisco Alvarez	3.7	.475	.116	.006	.177	.383	1.020	.237	.326	.439	.764

Data notes: home starter Robert Stock: only 52 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Robert Stock: only 29 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections