Houston Astros vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

August 28, 2026 · Hunter Brown vs Christian Scott · 73°F

2.8% edge · Houston Astros

Houston Astros win

53.5%

New York Mets win

46.5%

Fair line (home)

+115

Proj. total

8.36

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 4.46)New York Mets (mean 3.90)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.36

Over

52.5%

Under

47.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	53.5%	-107	-115
New York Mets	46.5%	-101	+115

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Hunter Brown RHP · Houston Astros	5.1	5.5	4.8	2.0	2.1
Christian Scott RHP · New York Mets	4.8	5.0	4.3	1.7	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Hunter Brown4+ 82%6+ 48%8+ 18%

Christian Scott4+ 76%6+ 38%8+ 12%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.8	.757	.182	.013	.156	.281	1.004	.252	.310	.406	.716
Yordan Alvarez	4.6	.636	.190	.006	.278	.695	.887	.286	.403	.553	.956
Isaac Paredes	4.5	.570	.158	.010	.195	.499	.838	.237	.340	.432	.772
Jose Altuve	4.4	.666	.146	.013	.158	.382	.929	.244	.316	.405	.721
Daulton Varsho	4.3	.500	.137	.028	.173	.370	1.117	.213	.286	.394	.680
Christian Walker	4.2	.478	.147	.006	.189	.392	1.157	.218	.303	.410	.713
Yainer Diaz	4.1	.657	.158	.007	.156	.186	.789	.251	.290	.415	.705
Taylor Trammell	4.0	.393	.123	.025	.137	.444	1.330	.193	.292	.359	.650
Nelson Velázquez	3.9	.392	.119	.010	.177	.331	1.277	.199	.275	.389	.664

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.6	.728	.175	.023	.070	.457	1.257	.245	.325	.351	.675
Francisco Lindor	4.5	.614	.133	.024	.172	.471	.960	.242	.334	.420	.755
Bo Bichette	4.3	.763	.182	.014	.123	.329	.865	.272	.331	.417	.748
Carson Benge	4.2	.655	.146	.024	.121	.377	1.049	.248	.324	.395	.720
Luis Robert Jr.	4.1	.549	.132	.005	.150	.355	1.298	.223	.297	.381	.678
Jared Young	4.0	.538	.138	.019	.145	.394	1.040	.235	.322	.405	.727
Marcus Semien	3.9	.518	.120	.011	.123	.379	.862	.219	.300	.365	.665
Brett Baty	3.8	.530	.117	.011	.121	.356	1.137	.228	.305	.374	.680
Luis Torrens	3.7	.512	.148	.006	.098	.289	.897	.228	.297	.363	.661

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections