Houston Astros vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

August 29, 2026 · Bennett Sousa vs Nolan McLean · 76°F

2.3% edge · Houston Astros

Houston Astros win

45.3%

New York Mets win

54.8%

Fair line (home)

-121

Proj. total

8.84

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 4.32)New York Mets (mean 4.53)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.84

Over

48.8%

Under

43.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	45.3%	+128	+121
New York Mets	54.8%	-139	-121

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Bennett Sousa LHP · Houston Astros	2.1	2.3	2.0	1.0	0.9
Nolan McLean RHP · New York Mets	5.4	5.4	4.8	2.3	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Bennett Sousa4+ 19%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Nolan McLean4+ 80%6+ 45%8+ 16%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.8	.777	.198	.016	.141	.317	1.004	.258	.324	.407	.731
Yordan Alvarez	4.7	.651	.189	.007	.242	.749	.913	.282	.409	.522	.931
Isaac Paredes	4.6	.586	.157	.011	.167	.564	.808	.236	.351	.411	.762
Jose Altuve	4.5	.684	.157	.014	.137	.416	.913	.247	.324	.395	.719
Daulton Varsho	4.4	.518	.156	.032	.151	.404	1.120	.218	.298	.389	.686
Christian Walker	4.3	.501	.153	.008	.176	.413	1.163	.222	.311	.406	.717
Taylor Trammell	4.2	.431	.132	.025	.135	.485	1.355	.199	.302	.361	.664
Nick Allen	4.0	.616	.142	.005	.046	.349	.902	.221	.295	.300	.595
Christian Vázquez	3.9	.547	.120	.005	.081	.290	.890	.209	.276	.313	.588

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.6	.628	.144	.021	.196	.460	.997	.242	.330	.431	.761
Juan Soto	4.5	.534	.129	.017	.266	.959	.820	.267	.426	.539	.966
Bo Bichette	4.4	.753	.181	.013	.141	.357	.872	.270	.333	.426	.758
Carson Benge	4.3	.658	.143	.024	.141	.389	1.033	.249	.326	.408	.734
Jared Young	4.2	.553	.144	.019	.174	.404	1.049	.238	.322	.427	.749
Marcus Semien	4.1	.533	.122	.013	.146	.406	.885	.222	.305	.382	.686
A.J. Ewing	4.0	.606	.153	.020	.075	.409	1.078	.241	.323	.359	.682
Brett Baty	3.9	.524	.116	.011	.130	.373	1.135	.225	.306	.377	.684
Francisco Alvarez	3.8	.418	.115	.005	.180	.418	1.096	.219	.315	.422	.737

Data notes: away starter Bennett Sousa: only 46 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Bennett Sousa: only 42 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections