Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

August 27, 2026 · Jacob Misiorowski vs Sean Manaea · 73°F

11.4% edge · New York Mets

Milwaukee Brewers win

52.8%

New York Mets win

47.1%

Fair line (home)

+112

Proj. total

7.76

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.15)New York Mets (mean 3.61)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.76

Over

46.9%

Under

41.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	52.8%	-191	-112
New York Mets	47.1%	+174	+112

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jacob Misiorowski RHP · Milwaukee Brewers	5.4	7.5	4.1	2.1	1.9
Sean Manaea LHP · New York Mets	4.3	3.8	4.1	1.6	1.8

Strikeout ladder

Jacob Misiorowski4+ 95%6+ 78%8+ 48%

Sean Manaea4+ 53%6+ 17%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Chourio	4.8	.688	.208	.012	.207	.377	1.125	.255	.319	.449	.769
Luis Lara	4.7	.728	.157	.027	.065	.451	1.006	.235	.319	.332	.651
William Contreras	4.6	.709	.175	.007	.148	.545	.813	.261	.355	.420	.775
Andrew Vaughn	4.5	.629	.176	.013	.153	.393	.904	.242	.318	.406	.725
Gary Sánchez	4.3	.485	.118	.013	.205	.492	1.113	.218	.322	.419	.741
Joey Ortiz	4.3	.631	.163	.024	.092	.365	.809	.237	.309	.364	.673
Sal Frelick	4.1	.701	.157	.015	.071	.369	.579	.254	.329	.361	.690
Cooper Pratt	4.0	.573	.119	.028	.087	.397	.846	.225	.309	.346	.656
David Hamilton	3.9	.502	.118	.023	.095	.358	1.012	.209	.286	.336	.622

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.5	.660	.163	.021	.070	.439	1.401	.227	.309	.330	.640
Francisco Lindor	4.4	.578	.137	.021	.166	.451	1.088	.235	.332	.412	.743
Carson Benge	4.3	.641	.136	.025	.121	.379	1.200	.240	.317	.382	.700
Luis Robert Jr.	4.2	.495	.129	.004	.151	.358	1.448	.206	.283	.362	.645
Jared Young	4.1	.514	.135	.019	.140	.368	1.204	.221	.306	.384	.689
Marcus Semien	4.0	.510	.114	.011	.123	.394	1.004	.213	.298	.355	.653
Brett Baty	3.9	.499	.108	.009	.114	.348	1.267	.210	.288	.344	.632
Christopher Morel	3.7	.400	.112	.007	.137	.360	1.356	.197	.285	.359	.644
Francisco Alvarez	3.6	.397	.103	.005	.152	.384	1.194	.206	.300	.385	.685

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections