Houston Astros vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

August 30, 2026 · Ethan Pecko vs Zac Thornton · 78°F

1.3% edge · Houston Astros

Houston Astros win

47.9%

New York Mets win

52.1%

Fair line (home)

-109

Proj. total

9.76

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 4.89)New York Mets (mean 4.87)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.76

Over

47.7%

Under

42.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	47.9%	+110	+109
New York Mets	52.1%	-120	-109

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Ethan Pecko RHP · Houston Astros	4.3	3.4	4.7	1.9	2.3
Zac Thornton LHP · New York Mets	5.0	3.4	5.3	1.8	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Ethan Pecko4+ 44%6+ 12%8+ 2%

Zac Thornton4+ 44%6+ 12%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.8	.833	.208	.016	.166	.298	.794	.273	.329	.438	.766
Yordan Alvarez	4.7	.715	.216	.006	.296	.695	.725	.310	.420	.591	1.011
Isaac Paredes	4.6	.621	.174	.011	.196	.524	.666	.250	.350	.445	.795
Jose Altuve	4.5	.705	.175	.016	.162	.387	.764	.258	.326	.426	.752
Christian Walker	4.4	.534	.162	.008	.216	.398	1.038	.233	.313	.441	.754
Daulton Varsho	4.3	.531	.158	.033	.174	.383	.913	.230	.304	.422	.726
Yainer Diaz	4.2	.705	.177	.008	.170	.190	.639	.266	.304	.443	.747
Cam Smith	4.1	.571	.148	.028	.145	.352	.960	.243	.317	.416	.733
Nick Allen	4.0	.644	.139	.006	.053	.318	.742	.233	.299	.319	.617

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.7	.689	.166	.028	.207	.486	.853	.264	.351	.468	.820
Juan Soto	4.6	.608	.141	.017	.273	.949	.718	.288	.439	.563	1.002
Bo Bichette	4.5	.817	.201	.016	.148	.342	.737	.287	.345	.452	.797
Carson Benge	4.4	.721	.161	.027	.151	.388	.914	.270	.342	.440	.782
Jared Young	4.3	.594	.151	.021	.185	.396	.955	.250	.331	.447	.778
Luis Robert Jr.	4.2	.580	.150	.005	.182	.354	1.127	.243	.314	.431	.745
A.J. Ewing	4.0	.664	.165	.021	.076	.404	.955	.256	.336	.377	.713
Marcus Semien	3.9	.542	.125	.012	.144	.388	.754	.233	.313	.398	.711
Luis Torrens	3.8	.566	.158	.006	.117	.288	.806	.243	.307	.392	.699

Data notes: home starter Zac Thornton: only 71 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Ethan Pecko: only 25 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Ethan Pecko: only 14 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections