San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

September 4, 2026 · Matt Wilkinson vs Nolan McLean · 80°F

1.0% edge · San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants win

36.9%

New York Mets win

63.1%

Fair line (home)

-171

Proj. total

8.45

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 3.76)New York Mets (mean 4.69)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.45

Over

52.5%

Under

47.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	36.9%	+173	+171
New York Mets	63.1%	-190	-171

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Matt Wilkinson LHP · San Francisco Giants	3.6	2.7	3.7	1.5	1.9
Nolan McLean RHP · New York Mets	5.4	5.1	5.0	2.1	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Matt Wilkinson4+ 28%6+ 5%8+ 0%

Nolan McLean4+ 77%6+ 41%8+ 13%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drew Gilbert	4.8	.636	.166	.027	.104	.468	.963	.222	.314	.349	.663
Rafael Devers	4.6	.557	.188	.006	.187	.606	1.245	.236	.344	.427	.771
Bryce Eldridge	4.5	.590	.167	.004	.157	.518	1.392	.230	.324	.392	.716
Turner Hill	4.4	.751	.182	.040	.049	.415	.650	.259	.339	.363	.702
Jung Hoo Lee	4.3	.757	.189	.035	.067	.320	.512	.266	.330	.383	.713
Drew Cavanaugh	4.2	.557	.143	.005	.076	.421	1.313	.210	.303	.312	.616
Osleivis Basabe	4.1	.640	.159	.013	.073	.246	.763	.232	.287	.338	.625
Nate Furman	4.0	.664	.144	.011	.056	.370	.708	.245	.325	.338	.663
Christian Koss	3.9	.580	.149	.011	.066	.187	.996	.221	.270	.322	.593

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.6	.705	.172	.021	.172	.419	.724	.260	.341	.437	.778
Juan Soto	4.5	.627	.149	.019	.248	.902	.604	.291	.436	.551	.986
Bo Bichette	4.4	.841	.205	.016	.116	.319	.608	.289	.344	.433	.777
Mark Vientos	4.3	.627	.176	.011	.208	.316	.915	.259	.319	.467	.786
Carson Benge	4.2	.737	.161	.026	.118	.356	.754	.274	.343	.424	.767
Marcus Semien	4.1	.624	.135	.014	.123	.400	.615	.245	.324	.391	.715
Christopher Morel	4.0	.532	.149	.010	.146	.397	1.008	.236	.320	.408	.728
Francisco Alvarez	3.9	.514	.139	.007	.168	.403	.892	.242	.330	.434	.764
Nick Morabito	3.7	.622	.128	.017	.055	.294	.835	.242	.312	.339	.650

Data notes: away starter Matt Wilkinson: only 9 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Matt Wilkinson: only 38 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections