San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

September 6, 2026 · Cesar Perdomo vs Christian Scott · 71°F

3.4% edge · New York Mets

San Francisco Giants win

38.1%

New York Mets win

61.9%

Fair line (home)

-162

Proj. total

7.9

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 3.51)New York Mets (mean 4.39)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.9

Over

40.8%

Under

51.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	38.1%	+136	+162
New York Mets	61.9%	-148	-162

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Cesar Perdomo LHP · San Francisco Giants	3.4	2.3	3.6	1.3	1.6
Christian Scott RHP · New York Mets	4.9	5.2	4.2	1.6	1.7

Strikeout ladder

Cesar Perdomo4+ 19%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Christian Scott4+ 78%6+ 42%8+ 14%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drew Gilbert	4.7	.596	.161	.026	.123	.422	.975	.218	.302	.358	.660
Rafael Devers	4.5	.540	.173	.006	.199	.550	1.204	.233	.333	.431	.764
Bryce Eldridge	4.4	.558	.154	.003	.171	.472	1.378	.225	.313	.395	.708
Jonah Cox	4.3	.686	.113	.072	.086	.261	1.216	.237	.289	.364	.653
Jung Hoo Lee	4.2	.730	.184	.035	.070	.290	.526	.262	.320	.381	.701
Osleivis Basabe	4.1	.626	.161	.012	.082	.232	.763	.229	.281	.341	.622
Grant McCray	4.0	.477	.133	.026	.087	.347	1.249	.199	.273	.321	.595
Drew Cavanaugh	3.9	.504	.125	.005	.074	.363	1.236	.205	.292	.308	.600
Christian Koss	3.8	.557	.138	.007	.063	.181	.974	.216	.264	.312	.576

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.6	.714	.167	.024	.152	.413	.688	.257	.337	.420	.757
Juan Soto	4.5	.641	.143	.017	.216	.882	.584	.284	.428	.513	.941
Bo Bichette	4.4	.840	.200	.014	.107	.299	.599	.286	.338	.421	.759
Carson Benge	4.3	.768	.172	.028	.111	.351	.743	.278	.344	.422	.766
Mark Vientos	4.2	.612	.161	.009	.178	.301	.893	.250	.311	.436	.748
Marcus Semien	4.1	.635	.138	.013	.110	.383	.607	.244	.320	.379	.699
Nick Morabito	4.0	.680	.139	.015	.056	.307	.839	.247	.315	.340	.656
A.J. Ewing	3.9	.688	.168	.019	.056	.350	.777	.268	.340	.376	.717
Luis Torrens	3.7	.575	.155	.007	.093	.277	.655	.243	.307	.374	.681

Data notes: away starter Cesar Perdomo: only 7 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Cesar Perdomo: only 8 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections