San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

September 5, 2026 · Anthony Molina vs Zac Thornton · 75°F

1.2% edge · New York Mets

San Francisco Giants win

38.3%

New York Mets win

61.7%

Fair line (home)

-161

Proj. total

8.44

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 3.79)New York Mets (mean 4.65)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.44

Over

45.5%

Under

46.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	38.3%	+148	+161
New York Mets	61.7%	-161	-161

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Anthony Molina RHP · San Francisco Giants	2.6	1.7	2.9	1.0	1.3
Zac Thornton LHP · New York Mets	5.2	4.2	5.1	1.5	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Anthony Molina4+ 8%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Zac Thornton4+ 61%6+ 23%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jonah Cox	4.7	.816	.139	.080	.090	.265	1.107	.256	.303	.386	.689
Rafael Devers	4.6	.594	.196	.007	.207	.515	1.035	.250	.341	.457	.797
Bryce Eldridge	4.5	.629	.178	.004	.177	.453	1.182	.248	.328	.427	.755
Osleivis Basabe	4.4	.716	.179	.013	.085	.238	.659	.243	.292	.355	.647
Turner Hill	4.3	.748	.189	.034	.051	.354	.520	.265	.334	.370	.704
Andrew Knizner	4.2	.603	.158	.010	.113	.312	.807	.234	.303	.370	.673
Shay Whitcomb	4.0	.550	.129	.009	.147	.240	1.053	.220	.272	.375	.648
Grant McCray	3.9	.504	.141	.032	.087	.324	1.087	.213	.282	.342	.624
Christian Koss	3.8	.606	.152	.009	.065	.172	.836	.231	.275	.333	.608

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.7	.737	.174	.029	.165	.427	.686	.266	.345	.441	.785
Juan Soto	4.5	.645	.151	.020	.219	.882	.589	.285	.427	.519	.946
Bo Bichette	4.4	.862	.209	.015	.107	.309	.599	.291	.345	.428	.772
Carson Benge	4.3	.786	.173	.029	.110	.340	.771	.279	.342	.421	.764
Jared Young	4.2	.647	.175	.028	.136	.362	.773	.259	.334	.427	.761
Marcus Semien	4.1	.625	.138	.011	.112	.390	.607	.239	.316	.373	.690
A.J. Ewing	4.0	.718	.182	.025	.058	.373	.822	.272	.344	.385	.729
Francisco Alvarez	3.9	.533	.141	.006	.157	.390	.898	.242	.325	.421	.747
Brett Baty	3.8	.603	.140	.012	.106	.341	.821	.253	.326	.395	.720

Data notes: away starter Anthony Molina: only 32 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Anthony Molina: only 24 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections