Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

September 16, 2026 · Chris Bassitt vs Xzavion Curry · 72°F

5.2% edge · New York Mets

Baltimore Orioles win

42.5%

New York Mets win

57.5%

Fair line (home)

-135

Proj. total

9.5

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.51)New York Mets (mean 4.99)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.5

Over

45.0%

Under

44.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	42.5%	+106	+135
New York Mets	57.5%	-114	-135

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Chris Bassitt RHP · Baltimore Orioles	4.9	3.7	5.6	2.1	2.8
Xzavion Curry RHP · New York Mets	2.4	1.9	2.7	0.8	1.3

Strikeout ladder

Chris Bassitt4+ 52%6+ 16%8+ 3%

Xzavion Curry4+ 11%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dylan Beavers	4.8	.667	.195	.014	.157	.538	1.043	.247	.337	.413	.749
Pete Alonso	4.6	.601	.183	.005	.262	.493	1.014	.258	.349	.499	.847
Gunnar Henderson	4.5	.632	.176	.032	.182	.479	.919	.255	.341	.452	.792
Coby Mayo	4.4	.524	.158	.025	.226	.381	1.216	.234	.308	.455	.763
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.3	.584	.177	.015	.189	.216	1.159	.238	.285	.430	.715
Samuel Basallo	4.2	.547	.146	.009	.207	.347	1.040	.237	.307	.442	.749
Jeremiah Jackson	4.1	.603	.181	.010	.141	.171	.896	.239	.277	.399	.676
Rece Hinds	4.0	.503	.161	.017	.150	.261	1.196	.226	.283	.401	.684
Colton Cowser	3.9	.475	.128	.006	.146	.399	1.178	.221	.309	.390	.700

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.7	.727	.174	.027	.193	.445	.805	.268	.353	.462	.814
Juan Soto	4.6	.639	.152	.021	.249	.902	.669	.289	.433	.546	.979
Bo Bichette	4.5	.881	.210	.016	.138	.320	.692	.301	.356	.460	.816
Carson Benge	4.4	.795	.167	.029	.134	.358	.852	.284	.352	.441	.794
Jared Young	4.3	.661	.182	.029	.157	.366	.851	.269	.344	.454	.798
Marcus Semien	4.2	.652	.144	.017	.127	.387	.682	.251	.327	.400	.727
A.J. Ewing	4.1	.719	.177	.024	.076	.387	.875	.274	.349	.399	.747
Brett Baty	4.0	.618	.152	.012	.132	.353	.924	.256	.329	.417	.745
Luis Torrens	3.8	.598	.173	.006	.114	.272	.745	.253	.315	.403	.718

Data notes: home starter Xzavion Curry: only 46 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Xzavion Curry: only 32 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections