Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

September 14, 2026 · Brandon Young vs Jonah Tong · 68°F

8.2% edge · New York Mets

Baltimore Orioles win

38.5%

New York Mets win

61.5%

Fair line (home)

-160

Proj. total

9.06

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.10)New York Mets (mean 4.96)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.06

Over

51.5%

Under

40.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	38.5%	+110	+160
New York Mets	61.5%	-119	-160

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Brandon Young RHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.2	4.1	5.9	2.2	3.0
Jonah Tong RHP · New York Mets	3.9	4.5	3.3	1.9	1.6

Strikeout ladder

Brandon Young4+ 60%6+ 22%8+ 5%

Jonah Tong4+ 68%6+ 30%8+ 7%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dylan Beavers	4.7	.615	.167	.010	.137	.621	1.190	.227	.333	.373	.706
Pete Alonso	4.6	.538	.151	.004	.230	.572	1.168	.231	.338	.445	.783
Gunnar Henderson	4.5	.584	.173	.027	.167	.557	1.003	.242	.343	.428	.770
Coby Mayo	4.4	.480	.144	.026	.207	.426	1.331	.217	.301	.425	.725
Jackson Holliday	4.3	.582	.136	.016	.105	.518	1.034	.223	.322	.351	.673
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.2	.542	.152	.013	.178	.236	1.234	.225	.276	.407	.683
Heston Kjerstad	4.1	.559	.133	.012	.122	.275	1.129	.219	.281	.358	.639
Colton Cowser	4.0	.445	.117	.005	.141	.474	1.292	.204	.306	.363	.668
Carlos Narváez	3.9	.448	.126	.004	.092	.393	1.170	.196	.286	.316	.602

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.7	.714	.160	.028	.201	.421	.794	.264	.340	.460	.799
Juan Soto	4.5	.643	.152	.018	.277	.870	.647	.298	.434	.576	1.010
Bo Bichette	4.5	.841	.201	.016	.143	.307	.682	.291	.343	.451	.794
Carson Benge	4.3	.766	.170	.028	.137	.353	.859	.279	.344	.440	.783
Jared Young	4.2	.646	.181	.028	.165	.357	.826	.267	.337	.458	.795
Marcus Semien	4.1	.631	.139	.012	.145	.375	.675	.249	.322	.409	.731
A.J. Ewing	4.0	.708	.183	.024	.078	.369	.876	.274	.345	.402	.748
Brett Baty	3.9	.614	.144	.010	.139	.346	.911	.257	.327	.421	.748
Francisco Alvarez	3.8	.491	.129	.007	.185	.378	.974	.240	.323	.447	.770

Data notes: home starter Jonah Tong: only 40 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Jonah Tong: only 28 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections