Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

September 15, 2026 · Shane Baz vs Sean Manaea · 67°F

5.1% edge · New York Mets

Baltimore Orioles win

40.2%

New York Mets win

59.8%

Fair line (home)

-149

Proj. total

8.96

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.11)New York Mets (mean 4.85)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.96

Over

50.0%

Under

42.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	40.2%	+116	+149
New York Mets	59.8%	-126	-149

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Shane Baz RHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.3	4.8	5.8	2.4	2.9
Sean Manaea LHP · New York Mets	4.6	4.7	4.3	1.3	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Shane Baz4+ 71%6+ 35%8+ 11%

Sean Manaea4+ 72%6+ 34%8+ 9%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Rece Hinds	4.7	.584	.174	.020	.175	.291	1.474	.220	.277	.391	.668
Pete Alonso	4.5	.563	.167	.004	.245	.475	1.101	.246	.341	.475	.816
Coby Mayo	4.5	.508	.161	.029	.213	.374	1.302	.227	.303	.441	.744
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.3	.580	.170	.017	.187	.209	1.225	.234	.281	.422	.702
Gunnar Henderson	4.2	.572	.170	.031	.171	.451	.906	.252	.341	.451	.792
Jeremiah Jackson	4.1	.614	.178	.010	.142	.170	.959	.240	.278	.399	.677
Yohel Pozo	4.0	.671	.173	.007	.117	.132	.577	.250	.279	.389	.668
Leody Taveras	3.9	.559	.124	.025	.089	.283	.956	.222	.283	.345	.627
Colton Cowser	3.8	.453	.119	.005	.145	.381	1.223	.215	.303	.383	.686

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.7	.707	.168	.028	.190	.451	.869	.263	.346	.455	.801
Juan Soto	4.6	.628	.143	.019	.256	.904	.719	.288	.432	.549	.981
Bo Bichette	4.5	.859	.203	.016	.131	.325	.750	.294	.349	.446	.795
Carson Benge	4.3	.744	.168	.030	.127	.364	.939	.271	.340	.426	.767
Jared Young	4.3	.642	.168	.030	.152	.379	.907	.261	.337	.441	.778
Marcus Semien	4.1	.638	.138	.015	.136	.388	.736	.249	.324	.404	.728
A.J. Ewing	4.0	.696	.172	.019	.074	.393	.950	.266	.342	.386	.728
Brett Baty	3.9	.604	.143	.011	.131	.351	.973	.251	.324	.408	.732
Francisco Alvarez	3.8	.499	.123	.007	.170	.381	1.023	.237	.322	.429	.751

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections