Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

September 17, 2026 · Aaron Nola vs Nolan McLean · 75°F

1.3% edge · New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies win

44.3%

New York Mets win

55.7%

Fair line (home)

-126

Proj. total

9.17

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.44)New York Mets (mean 4.73)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.17

Over

51.7%

Under

48.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	44.3%	+115	+126
New York Mets	55.7%	-124	-126

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Aaron Nola RHP · Philadelphia Phillies	5.1	5.0	5.6	1.8	2.7
Nolan McLean RHP · New York Mets	5.3	5.0	5.3	2.3	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Aaron Nola4+ 74%6+ 39%8+ 12%

Nolan McLean4+ 75%6+ 38%8+ 12%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.9	.460	.120	.010	.266	.787	1.557	.213	.349	.445	.795
Trea Turner	4.8	.806	.196	.019	.116	.347	1.013	.261	.323	.395	.718
Bryce Harper	4.7	.627	.207	.014	.172	.674	1.083	.259	.372	.450	.822
Luis Arraez	4.5	1.024	.192	.036	.049	.266	.244	.307	.354	.404	.759
Alec Bohm	4.4	.755	.191	.017	.105	.347	.743	.265	.332	.399	.731
Bryson Stott	4.3	.670	.161	.033	.081	.447	.798	.246	.330	.369	.699
Brandon Marsh	4.2	.652	.174	.021	.108	.393	1.191	.252	.327	.394	.721
Justin Crawford	4.1	.759	.166	.032	.050	.297	.848	.267	.326	.367	.693
Garrett Stubbs	4.0	.563	.127	.007	.070	.329	1.044	.213	.291	.310	.601

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.6	.723	.160	.026	.214	.362	.898	.267	.334	.470	.805
Juan Soto	4.5	.626	.148	.017	.287	.771	.765	.289	.413	.569	.982
Bo Bichette	4.4	.858	.203	.017	.142	.270	.783	.295	.341	.456	.797
Carson Benge	4.3	.743	.169	.028	.150	.302	.973	.274	.331	.444	.775
Jared Young	4.2	.627	.174	.031	.163	.322	.960	.260	.326	.449	.775
A.J. Ewing	4.1	.726	.185	.023	.086	.330	.998	.273	.336	.403	.739
Francisco Alvarez	4.0	.531	.140	.007	.199	.338	1.128	.243	.314	.450	.764
Brett Baty	3.9	.602	.143	.011	.131	.293	1.029	.249	.310	.405	.716
Nick Morabito	3.8	.633	.135	.015	.069	.246	.965	.246	.304	.353	.657

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections