Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

September 18, 2026 · Tim Mayza vs Zac Thornton · 76°F

1.5% edge · Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies win

48.0%

New York Mets win

52.0%

Fair line (home)

-108

Proj. total

9.21

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.64)New York Mets (mean 4.57)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.21

Over

52.4%

Under

47.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	48.0%	+111	+108
New York Mets	52.0%	-120	-108

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Tim Mayza LHP · Philadelphia Phillies	2.1	1.9	2.3	0.8	0.9
Zac Thornton LHP · New York Mets	5.1	3.7	5.6	1.6	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Tim Mayza4+ 10%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Zac Thornton4+ 51%6+ 15%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.8	.505	.136	.011	.320	.708	1.327	.239	.357	.513	.871
Trea Turner	4.7	.830	.194	.023	.139	.287	.840	.270	.320	.419	.740
Bryce Harper	4.6	.647	.215	.014	.211	.597	.922	.273	.372	.494	.865
Luis Arraez	4.5	1.020	.185	.038	.055	.233	.187	.307	.347	.407	.755
Alec Bohm	4.4	.767	.203	.016	.122	.296	.612	.273	.329	.422	.751
Edmundo Sosa	4.3	.693	.184	.032	.132	.162	.891	.257	.296	.416	.712
Bryson Stott	4.2	.680	.161	.030	.093	.374	.646	.255	.326	.388	.714
J.T. Realmuto	4.1	.622	.172	.009	.126	.270	.868	.249	.310	.401	.711
Derek Hill	4.0	.574	.126	.020	.118	.226	1.143	.227	.278	.368	.646

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.7	.717	.164	.024	.181	.394	.899	.260	.337	.442	.778
Juan Soto	4.5	.632	.152	.019	.231	.852	.741	.283	.422	.525	.946
Bo Bichette	4.4	.846	.208	.015	.117	.287	.786	.288	.338	.431	.768
Carson Benge	4.3	.752	.160	.028	.121	.340	.934	.269	.334	.416	.749
Mark Vientos	4.2	.602	.167	.009	.193	.296	1.065	.250	.310	.447	.757
A.J. Ewing	4.1	.726	.184	.024	.072	.365	.970	.270	.339	.390	.729
Marcus Semien	4.0	.610	.142	.014	.118	.362	.722	.244	.317	.388	.705
Brett Baty	3.9	.608	.144	.011	.118	.322	1.002	.248	.316	.395	.711
Luis Torrens	3.8	.579	.170	.006	.110	.260	.811	.249	.309	.395	.704

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections