Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

September 19, 2026 · Andrew Painter vs Christian Scott · 66°F

2.6% edge · New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies win

43.9%

New York Mets win

56.1%

Fair line (home)

-128

Proj. total

9.19

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.38)New York Mets (mean 4.81)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.19

Over

52.3%

Under

40.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	43.9%	+111	+128
New York Mets	56.1%	-120	-128

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Andrew Painter RHP · Philadelphia Phillies	4.8	3.7	5.4	2.1	2.7
Christian Scott RHP · New York Mets	4.7	4.6	4.6	1.8	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Andrew Painter4+ 51%6+ 17%8+ 3%

Christian Scott4+ 69%6+ 31%8+ 8%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.8	.422	.115	.007	.295	.727	1.570	.208	.336	.459	.795
Trea Turner	4.7	.760	.181	.020	.137	.326	1.037	.253	.311	.398	.709
Bryce Harper	4.6	.590	.203	.010	.193	.648	1.096	.254	.365	.459	.824
Luis Arraez	4.5	.983	.179	.035	.057	.266	.250	.299	.346	.399	.745
Alec Bohm	4.4	.725	.178	.014	.113	.329	.744	.256	.320	.392	.712
Bryson Stott	4.3	.653	.159	.032	.094	.414	.791	.245	.323	.376	.699
Brandon Marsh	4.2	.614	.155	.019	.111	.378	1.226	.239	.312	.379	.691
J.T. Realmuto	4.0	.546	.154	.009	.112	.293	1.033	.222	.292	.360	.652
Justin Crawford	3.9	.718	.150	.029	.050	.267	.824	.260	.316	.359	.675

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.7	.711	.170	.028	.198	.432	.779	.266	.345	.462	.807
Juan Soto	4.6	.651	.159	.019	.261	.876	.655	.298	.436	.567	1.003
Bo Bichette	4.5	.882	.216	.014	.127	.304	.698	.300	.351	.452	.803
Carson Benge	4.3	.774	.169	.027	.133	.347	.852	.279	.343	.436	.778
A.J. Ewing	4.2	.754	.186	.026	.078	.383	.931	.272	.342	.396	.738
Marcus Semien	4.1	.643	.140	.012	.137	.374	.677	.249	.321	.403	.724
Brett Baty	4.0	.625	.150	.011	.131	.364	.952	.251	.323	.406	.729
Francisco Alvarez	3.9	.533	.133	.008	.181	.377	.993	.244	.325	.442	.767
Ronny Mauricio	3.8	.619	.140	.006	.127	.183	.884	.249	.292	.398	.690

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections