Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets — Prediction & Odds

September 20, 2026 · Cristopher Sánchez vs Jonah Tong · 68°F

5.0% edge · New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies win

54.1%

New York Mets win

45.9%

Fair line (home)

+118

Proj. total

8.62

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.67)New York Mets (mean 3.96)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.62

Over

54.4%

Under

45.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	54.1%	-152	-118
New York Mets	45.9%	+140	+118

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Cristopher Sánchez LHP · Philadelphia Phillies	5.9	5.8	6.0	1.7	2.4
Jonah Tong RHP · New York Mets	4.1	3.6	4.1	2.1	1.9

Strikeout ladder

Cristopher Sánchez4+ 85%6+ 54%8+ 23%

Jonah Tong4+ 51%6+ 15%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Philadelphia Phillies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kyle Schwarber	4.9	.429	.119	.008	.288	.870	1.504	.211	.358	.461	.818
Trea Turner	4.8	.782	.195	.018	.134	.385	.974	.258	.324	.403	.726
Bryce Harper	4.7	.607	.202	.015	.194	.732	1.065	.259	.379	.467	.846
Luis Arraez	4.6	1.008	.185	.035	.055	.301	.235	.303	.353	.401	.755
Alec Bohm	4.5	.740	.188	.015	.102	.382	.732	.259	.329	.388	.717
Bryson Stott	4.4	.681	.163	.028	.086	.481	.773	.249	.336	.373	.710
Brandon Marsh	4.2	.643	.170	.017	.110	.437	1.162	.248	.329	.390	.719
J.T. Realmuto	4.1	.573	.162	.011	.119	.349	1.002	.232	.308	.376	.685
Justin Crawford	4.0	.737	.162	.032	.046	.309	.785	.265	.325	.363	.689

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.6	.734	.175	.019	.135	.311	.967	.254	.318	.402	.720
Juan Soto	4.5	.659	.157	.016	.192	.702	.820	.274	.392	.479	.871
Bo Bichette	4.4	.870	.203	.017	.091	.243	.828	.288	.331	.412	.743
Mark Vientos	4.3	.653	.167	.009	.159	.250	1.148	.249	.301	.417	.718
Carson Benge	4.2	.754	.168	.027	.093	.275	.967	.272	.327	.403	.730
Marcus Semien	4.0	.646	.145	.013	.093	.304	.799	.242	.304	.364	.667
Francisco Alvarez	3.9	.539	.140	.007	.137	.300	1.162	.229	.296	.387	.683
Nick Morabito	3.8	.654	.129	.017	.047	.239	1.028	.240	.296	.326	.622
Luis Torrens	3.7	.577	.167	.008	.080	.200	.872	.240	.288	.363	.651

Data notes: home starter Jonah Tong: only 53 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Jonah Tong: only 38 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections