Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

September 22, 2026 · Nick Martinez vs Carlos Rodón · 64°F

2.5% edge · Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays win

47.1%

New York Yankees win

52.9%

Fair line (home)

-112

Proj. total

8.65

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.28)New York Yankees (mean 4.38)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.65

Over

56.1%

Under

32.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	47.1%	+120	+112
New York Yankees	52.9%	-130	-112

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Nick Martinez RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	5.4	4.0	5.8	1.3	2.8
Carlos Rodón LHP · New York Yankees	4.8	4.3	4.6	1.9	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Nick Martinez4+ 58%6+ 21%8+ 4%

Carlos Rodón4+ 64%6+ 25%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.8	.789	.179	.007	.175	.479	.809	.270	.350	.438	.788
Jonathan Aranda	4.7	.662	.167	.002	.166	.511	1.273	.243	.337	.407	.744
Junior Caminero	4.6	.589	.154	.006	.307	.443	.950	.259	.335	.525	.860
Liam Hicks	4.5	.697	.141	.010	.116	.490	.641	.248	.343	.379	.722
Chandler Simpson	4.3	.954	.129	.040	.017	.233	.459	.278	.318	.341	.659
Jonny DeLuca	4.3	.558	.174	.015	.128	.260	.985	.222	.277	.371	.648
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.1	.552	.129	.026	.167	.329	.967	.231	.297	.412	.709
Ben Williamson	4.0	.665	.159	.014	.051	.284	.902	.240	.300	.333	.633
Richie Palacios	3.9	.514	.131	.017	.088	.438	.787	.219	.314	.345	.659

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ben Rice	4.5	.588	.169	.026	.292	.422	.874	.267	.343	.540	.883
Cody Bellinger	4.4	.738	.181	.024	.199	.305	.564	.281	.334	.485	.819
Heliot Ramos	4.3	.664	.154	.018	.205	.262	.954	.262	.315	.464	.780
Luis García Jr.	4.2	.680	.184	.024	.240	.170	.610	.282	.314	.520	.834
George Lombard Jr.	4.1	.587	.173	.022	.105	.318	.934	.238	.305	.381	.686
Spencer Jones	4.0	.532	.164	.010	.225	.262	1.278	.252	.306	.485	.791
Anthony Volpe	3.9	.543	.176	.022	.129	.249	.807	.242	.295	.410	.705
Ali Sánchez	3.8	.576	.120	.005	.100	.197	.812	.228	.275	.350	.625
José Caballero	3.6	.547	.139	.006	.091	.247	.800	.236	.299	.363	.662

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections