Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

August 29, 2026 · Jake Bennett vs Carlos Rodón · 75°F

0.6% edge · New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox win

46.7%

New York Yankees win

53.3%

Fair line (home)

-114

Proj. total

8.69

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 4.28)New York Yankees (mean 4.41)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.69

Over

47.6%

Under

44.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	46.7%	+107	+114
New York Yankees	53.3%	-116	-114

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jake Bennett LHP · Boston Red Sox	5.3	4.5	5.9	1.5	2.7
Carlos Rodón LHP · New York Yankees	4.8	4.9	4.3	1.9	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Jake Bennett4+ 68%6+ 30%8+ 8%

Carlos Rodón4+ 75%6+ 37%8+ 11%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jahmai Jones	4.8	.578	.186	.024	.171	.482	1.369	.227	.316	.404	.720
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.7	.688	.208	.026	.165	.215	1.064	.248	.292	.420	.712
Wilyer Abreu	4.5	.553	.184	.017	.224	.492	1.085	.243	.328	.463	.791
Willson Contreras	4.4	.538	.161	.013	.209	.478	1.232	.240	.343	.453	.795
Caleb Durbin	4.3	.651	.185	.014	.120	.341	.619	.249	.326	.396	.722
Adley Rutschman	4.2	.579	.171	.013	.139	.471	.738	.241	.331	.406	.736
Andruw Monasterio	4.1	.598	.176	.010	.087	.384	.948	.235	.314	.359	.672
Nick Sogard	4.0	.564	.152	.011	.049	.412	.941	.218	.306	.308	.614
Eli White	3.9	.551	.119	.029	.131	.265	1.032	.231	.291	.390	.681

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Paul Goldschmidt	4.6	.784	.195	.011	.162	.346	.966	.274	.334	.440	.775
Ben Rice	4.5	.584	.177	.024	.258	.439	.947	.262	.343	.513	.856
Amed Rosario	4.4	.860	.185	.024	.116	.189	.833	.286	.322	.427	.749
Heliot Ramos	4.3	.694	.166	.018	.168	.292	.992	.267	.327	.448	.775
Cody Bellinger	4.2	.701	.175	.026	.166	.367	.591	.283	.350	.475	.825
George Lombard Jr.	4.1	.598	.180	.015	.089	.377	.986	.243	.322	.374	.696
José Caballero	3.9	.625	.159	.008	.092	.313	.922	.248	.321	.374	.695
Spencer Jones	3.8	.511	.161	.010	.180	.282	1.296	.245	.306	.450	.756
Ali Sánchez	3.7	.632	.130	.006	.086	.220	.830	.247	.298	.363	.662

Data notes: home starter Carlos Rodón: only 58 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections