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3.1% edge · Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds
July 3, 2026 · Mike Paredes vs Gerrit Cole · 101°F
Minnesota Twins win
37.8%
New York Yankees win
62.2%
Fair line (home)
-164
Proj. total
9.36
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Minnesota Twins (mean 4.18)New York Yankees (mean 5.18)
Totals
O/U line
10
Proj. total
9.36
Over
36.1%
Under
56.4%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 37.8% | +182 | +164 |
| New York Yankees | 62.2% | -200 | -164 |
Minnesota Twins — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach | 4.7 | .671 | .176 | .015 | .172 | .468 | 1.105 | .246 | .328 | .419 | .746 |
| Brooks Lee | 4.6 | .702 | .162 | .021 | .183 | .275 | .802 | .249 | .299 | .425 | .724 |
| Kody Clemens | 4.5 | .539 | .168 | .036 | .229 | .290 | 1.084 | .235 | .292 | .459 | .751 |
| Josh Bell | 4.4 | .633 | .146 | .007 | .187 | .380 | .913 | .246 | .318 | .429 | .747 |
| Royce Lewis | 4.3 | .574 | .157 | .005 | .220 | .314 | .970 | .243 | .304 | .454 | .758 |
| Victor Caratini | 4.2 | .672 | .121 | .006 | .129 | .290 | .812 | .246 | .317 | .385 | .701 |
| Ryan Kreidler | 4.0 | .472 | .130 | .016 | .108 | .386 | 1.304 | .200 | .284 | .335 | .619 |
| Tristan Gray | 3.9 | .488 | .147 | .014 | .153 | .232 | 1.165 | .219 | .272 | .392 | .663 |
| Luke Keaschall | 3.8 | .654 | .148 | .013 | .073 | .328 | .637 | .259 | .334 | .373 | .707 |
New York Yankees — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Grisham | 4.7 | .616 | .160 | .019 | .230 | .599 | .893 | .255 | .358 | .477 | .835 |
| Ben Rice | 4.5 | .612 | .194 | .026 | .294 | .479 | .846 | .281 | .366 | .562 | .928 |
| Jasson Domínguez | 4.4 | .772 | .172 | .012 | .169 | .388 | .892 | .281 | .350 | .456 | .807 |
| Cody Bellinger | 4.3 | .715 | .181 | .032 | .203 | .392 | .522 | .290 | .358 | .508 | .866 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 4.2 | .723 | .191 | .013 | .166 | .356 | .774 | .285 | .351 | .471 | .822 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 4.1 | .603 | .135 | .021 | .220 | .384 | .941 | .265 | .339 | .491 | .830 |
| Ryan McMahon | 4.0 | .523 | .145 | .006 | .170 | .431 | 1.123 | .238 | .324 | .426 | .750 |
| José Caballero | 3.9 | .614 | .157 | .007 | .094 | .351 | .808 | .251 | .332 | .382 | .714 |
| Austin Wells | 3.8 | .499 | .146 | .009 | .173 | .356 | .816 | .245 | .324 | .447 | .770 |
Data notes: home starter Gerrit Cole: only 53 BF vs RHB this season · away starter Mike Paredes: only 68 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Mike Paredes: only 42 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 101F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections