Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

July 4, 2026 · Zebby Matthews vs Brendan Beck · 98°F

0.3% edge · New York Yankees

Minnesota Twins win

40.8%

New York Yankees win

59.2%

Fair line (home)

-145

Proj. total

8.95

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 4.18)New York Yankees (mean 4.76)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.95

Over

33.5%

Under

59.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	40.8%	+139	+145
New York Yankees	59.2%	-151	-145

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trevor Larnach	4.7	.655	.182	.017	.155	.488	1.078	.242	.326	.406	.732
Byron Buxton	4.6	.542	.172	.034	.291	.337	1.223	.248	.313	.514	.827
Kody Clemens	4.5	.546	.166	.033	.207	.309	1.060	.231	.293	.438	.731
Josh Bell	4.4	.622	.136	.008	.170	.391	.904	.238	.314	.406	.720
Royce Lewis	4.3	.575	.161	.005	.202	.330	.961	.241	.305	.440	.744
Brooks Lee	4.2	.639	.145	.016	.146	.261	.731	.245	.297	.404	.701
Ryan Kreidler	4.0	.465	.130	.018	.100	.400	1.247	.198	.285	.327	.612
Luke Keaschall	3.9	.649	.161	.015	.070	.342	.650	.254	.332	.369	.700
Alex Jackson	3.8	.410	.135	.009	.148	.239	1.251	.199	.258	.368	.626

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.6	.602	.159	.022	.239	.520	.957	.253	.343	.481	.823
Ben Rice	4.5	.597	.189	.024	.303	.428	.894	.279	.355	.566	.921
Cody Bellinger	4.4	.742	.186	.033	.213	.338	.584	.293	.351	.515	.866
Jasson Domínguez	4.3	.741	.169	.013	.164	.339	.921	.280	.343	.456	.799
Anthony Volpe	4.2	.587	.192	.020	.147	.293	.919	.247	.305	.422	.727
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.0	.593	.138	.020	.221	.343	.997	.264	.331	.492	.822
Ryan McMahon	3.9	.534	.140	.005	.172	.378	1.165	.240	.317	.428	.744
Max Schuemann	3.8	.599	.142	.014	.074	.378	.840	.244	.328	.359	.687
Ali Sánchez	3.7	.590	.134	.006	.104	.233	.871	.242	.294	.375	.668

Data notes: home starter Brendan Beck: only 6 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Brendan Beck: only 7 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 98F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections