Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

July 5, 2026 · Joe Ryan vs Ryan Weathers · 83°F

2.4% edge · New York Yankees

Minnesota Twins win

43.2%

New York Yankees win

56.8%

Fair line (home)

-131

Proj. total

8.37

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 4.01)New York Yankees (mean 4.37)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.37

Over

44.5%

Under

55.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	43.2%	+115	+131
New York Yankees	56.8%	-125	-131

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Austin Martin	4.7	.727	.184	.009	.054	.535	.934	.237	.333	.326	.659
Byron Buxton	4.6	.518	.172	.031	.288	.351	1.342	.241	.309	.504	.813
Kody Clemens	4.5	.544	.162	.030	.204	.316	1.168	.228	.290	.431	.721
Josh Bell	4.4	.609	.136	.005	.155	.384	1.005	.230	.305	.385	.690
Royce Lewis	4.3	.541	.163	.005	.203	.344	1.057	.234	.300	.434	.734
Victor Caratini	4.2	.656	.120	.005	.117	.289	.883	.238	.308	.364	.673
Brooks Lee	4.0	.616	.138	.011	.131	.250	.759	.237	.291	.384	.674
Ryan Kreidler	3.9	.446	.118	.015	.092	.395	1.322	.192	.280	.313	.594
Luke Keaschall	3.8	.623	.159	.015	.065	.342	.691	.252	.331	.364	.695

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.5	.547	.150	.018	.224	.516	1.093	.236	.331	.452	.783
Ben Rice	4.4	.550	.168	.024	.267	.404	1.048	.255	.334	.512	.847
Jasson Domínguez	4.3	.711	.157	.011	.165	.337	1.106	.265	.328	.435	.764
Cody Bellinger	4.2	.675	.167	.030	.193	.345	.668	.277	.342	.487	.829
Anthony Volpe	4.1	.540	.178	.023	.143	.287	1.029	.233	.293	.405	.699
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.0	.541	.120	.015	.209	.330	1.134	.243	.313	.457	.770
Max Schuemann	3.9	.564	.132	.015	.069	.378	.983	.226	.314	.333	.648
Austin Wells	3.8	.456	.133	.008	.171	.314	1.006	.225	.298	.419	.717
José Caballero	3.6	.538	.152	.008	.081	.285	.916	.237	.312	.362	.674

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections