Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

July 20, 2026 · Braxton Ashcraft vs Ryan Weathers · 79°F

3.6% edge · New York Yankees

Pittsburgh Pirates win

45.2%

New York Yankees win

54.8%

Fair line (home)

-121

Proj. total

8.59

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.18)New York Yankees (mean 4.41)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.59

Over

53.9%

Under

46.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	45.2%	+101	+121
New York Yankees	54.8%	-109	-121

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Gonzales	4.7	.806	.201	.030	.093	.307	1.019	.259	.316	.383	.698
Brandon Lowe	4.6	.557	.167	.009	.250	.399	1.309	.234	.305	.457	.763
Bryan Reynolds	4.5	.650	.170	.013	.165	.403	1.174	.247	.324	.418	.742
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.4	.544	.153	.012	.204	.408	1.355	.231	.310	.431	.740
Ryan O'Hearn	4.3	.676	.158	.010	.171	.367	.940	.261	.330	.438	.768
Marcell Ozuna	4.2	.523	.118	.004	.186	.486	1.200	.225	.320	.411	.731
Jared Triolo	4.1	.592	.154	.008	.075	.407	1.034	.227	.311	.336	.647
Henry Davis	4.0	.462	.127	.004	.146	.331	1.052	.206	.285	.366	.651
Billy Cook	3.9	.495	.135	.013	.097	.263	1.205	.208	.269	.335	.604

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.6	.586	.153	.018	.196	.577	1.045	.240	.342	.436	.777
Ben Rice	4.5	.575	.164	.023	.248	.473	.989	.256	.345	.498	.843
Paul Goldschmidt	4.4	.702	.182	.013	.145	.349	.996	.261	.326	.423	.749
Cody Bellinger	4.3	.682	.161	.027	.167	.390	.673	.270	.341	.456	.796
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.2	.585	.133	.015	.186	.388	1.143	.246	.322	.439	.760
Jasson Domínguez	4.1	.655	.156	.007	.126	.340	.974	.256	.325	.405	.730
Ryan McMahon	4.0	.491	.132	.005	.144	.413	1.274	.220	.306	.384	.690
Austin Wells	3.8	.475	.138	.009	.149	.354	.992	.224	.304	.400	.703
José Caballero	3.7	.561	.146	.006	.084	.314	.925	.240	.319	.364	.682

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections