Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

July 22, 2026 · Bubba Chandler vs Max Fried · 86°F

2.3% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates win

39.5%

New York Yankees win

60.6%

Fair line (home)

-153

Proj. total

9.25

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.21)New York Yankees (mean 5.04)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.25

Over

42.6%

Under

46.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	39.5%	+164	+153
New York Yankees	60.6%	-179	-153

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake Mangum	4.8	.985	.209	.008	.046	.201	.837	.276	.316	.356	.672
Nick Gonzales	4.7	.853	.229	.028	.074	.289	.911	.274	.327	.391	.719
Bryan Reynolds	4.6	.699	.177	.014	.143	.396	1.106	.252	.327	.407	.734
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.5	.592	.163	.013	.173	.403	1.302	.235	.311	.412	.723
Ryan O'Hearn	4.3	.726	.174	.009	.153	.370	.858	.270	.338	.435	.773
Marcell Ozuna	4.2	.573	.134	.003	.172	.461	1.130	.235	.322	.409	.731
Brandon Lowe	4.1	.532	.156	.009	.203	.332	1.071	.239	.306	.446	.752
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.0	.585	.152	.012	.094	.337	1.139	.231	.301	.356	.657
Jared Triolo	3.9	.591	.153	.010	.068	.379	.909	.236	.317	.344	.661

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.7	.561	.153	.015	.229	.727	.962	.245	.369	.468	.838
Ben Rice	4.6	.562	.165	.020	.288	.590	.945	.265	.370	.539	.909
Paul Goldschmidt	4.5	.706	.183	.013	.177	.441	.945	.272	.350	.458	.808
Cody Bellinger	4.3	.683	.162	.027	.201	.492	.604	.280	.366	.494	.861
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.2	.585	.128	.019	.215	.494	1.081	.256	.349	.475	.823
Jasson Domínguez	4.1	.652	.152	.006	.152	.435	.915	.263	.347	.432	.779
Anthony Volpe	4.0	.563	.174	.022	.133	.393	.888	.247	.326	.418	.744
Ryan McMahon	3.9	.494	.129	.005	.155	.514	1.166	.232	.338	.411	.749
Ali Sánchez	3.8	.574	.127	.006	.088	.322	.913	.230	.301	.347	.648

Data notes: home starter Max Fried: only 57 BF vs LHB this season · game-time temp 86F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections