Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

July 22, 2026 · Mitch Keller vs Gerrit Cole · 84°F

3.5% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates win

41.0%

New York Yankees win

59.0%

Fair line (home)

-144

Proj. total

9.3

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.28)New York Yankees (mean 5.02)

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

9.3

Over

43.3%

Under

56.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	41.0%	+161	+144
New York Yankees	59.0%	-176	-144

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake Mangum	4.7	.928	.200	.013	.063	.206	.874	.269	.309	.362	.671
Brandon Lowe	4.6	.574	.173	.011	.282	.357	1.213	.246	.310	.493	.803
Bryan Reynolds	4.5	.675	.166	.021	.196	.395	1.099	.261	.335	.457	.791
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.4	.560	.152	.012	.224	.370	1.289	.238	.310	.451	.760
Ryan O'Hearn	4.3	.687	.161	.009	.190	.335	.865	.267	.331	.458	.789
Nick Gonzales	4.2	.739	.189	.027	.094	.250	.833	.270	.322	.405	.726
Jacob Gonzalez	4.1	.577	.146	.009	.134	.285	.861	.230	.291	.381	.672
Henry Davis	4.0	.489	.132	.005	.162	.297	1.007	.218	.288	.392	.681
Tyler Callihan	3.9	.520	.130	.029	.095	.265	1.151	.217	.275	.349	.623

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.7	.601	.170	.020	.237	.607	.927	.257	.360	.486	.846
Ben Rice	4.5	.601	.173	.020	.296	.496	.892	.274	.365	.552	.917
Spencer Jones	4.4	.586	.165	.010	.209	.367	1.540	.241	.311	.443	.754
Cody Bellinger	4.3	.711	.173	.029	.191	.397	.587	.284	.355	.491	.845
Jasson Domínguez	4.2	.723	.173	.009	.151	.357	.887	.276	.344	.444	.788
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.1	.589	.136	.020	.213	.403	.989	.261	.341	.483	.824
José Caballero	4.0	.626	.164	.007	.105	.345	.885	.253	.334	.392	.726
Ryan McMahon	3.9	.500	.132	.004	.168	.438	1.136	.235	.326	.423	.749
Austin Wells	3.8	.479	.137	.008	.172	.365	.875	.237	.319	.436	.755

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections