St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

August 4, 2026 · Hunter Dobbins vs Ryan Weathers · 79°F

4.6% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals win

41.0%

New York Yankees win

59.0%

Fair line (home)

-144

Proj. total

9.29

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.33)New York Yankees (mean 4.96)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.29

Over

52.9%

Under

39.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	41.0%	+169	+144
New York Yankees	59.0%	-185	-144

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.8	.755	.172	.007	.170	.452	.848	.261	.345	.427	.772
Jordan Walker	4.7	.665	.188	.009	.225	.362	1.264	.255	.319	.462	.782
Iván Herrera	4.5	.692	.156	.011	.161	.505	.907	.260	.361	.429	.790
José Fermín	4.4	.666	.187	.006	.102	.450	.654	.245	.332	.375	.707
Nelson Velázquez	4.3	.505	.147	.010	.206	.364	1.268	.221	.293	.420	.713
Masyn Winn	4.2	.680	.165	.019	.107	.313	.831	.251	.314	.386	.699
Blaze Jordan	4.1	.646	.180	.016	.136	.219	.616	.252	.298	.412	.710
Nathan Church	4.0	.648	.137	.018	.109	.244	.752	.245	.298	.379	.678
Pedro Pagés	3.9	.542	.131	.006	.137	.238	1.076	.226	.280	.379	.659

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.6	.621	.171	.018	.211	.610	.844	.256	.360	.466	.825
Ben Rice	4.5	.616	.178	.025	.276	.501	.788	.276	.366	.542	.908
Luis García Jr.	4.4	.816	.222	.029	.197	.232	.535	.303	.342	.512	.855
Heliot Ramos	4.3	.750	.186	.028	.166	.330	.882	.288	.352	.476	.828
Spencer Jones	4.2	.576	.166	.008	.194	.341	1.377	.247	.314	.446	.761
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.1	.605	.139	.022	.200	.402	.914	.263	.341	.477	.818
Ryan McMahon	4.0	.534	.149	.004	.159	.457	1.073	.241	.333	.422	.754
George Lombard Jr.	3.9	.542	.174	.010	.065	.425	.898	.232	.326	.346	.671
Austin Wells	3.8	.490	.149	.007	.160	.358	.803	.239	.319	.430	.749

Data notes: away starter Hunter Dobbins: only 71 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Hunter Dobbins: only 72 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections