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0.8% edge · Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds
August 7, 2026 · Tyler Mahle vs Max Fried · 85°F
Atlanta Braves win
47.0%
New York Yankees win
53.0%
Fair line (home)
-113
Proj. total
9.19
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Atlanta Braves (mean 4.57)New York Yankees (mean 4.62)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
9.19
Over
52.4%
Under
39.6%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 47.0% | +112 | +113 |
| New York Yankees | 53.0% | -121 | -113 |
Atlanta Braves — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 4.8 | .748 | .175 | .018 | .199 | .614 | 1.016 | .275 | .375 | .469 | .844 |
| Drake Baldwin | 4.7 | .763 | .159 | .011 | .200 | .402 | .918 | .265 | .335 | .448 | .783 |
| Ozzie Albies | 4.6 | .754 | .198 | .007 | .143 | .277 | .674 | .258 | .310 | .407 | .718 |
| Matt Olson | 4.5 | .598 | .186 | .006 | .237 | .485 | 1.073 | .259 | .344 | .488 | .831 |
| Mauricio Dubón | 4.4 | .794 | .194 | .015 | .091 | .234 | .598 | .265 | .308 | .386 | .695 |
| Lane Thomas | 4.3 | .603 | .190 | .010 | .138 | .371 | 1.046 | .244 | .318 | .405 | .723 |
| Austin Riley | 4.2 | .610 | .159 | .012 | .160 | .307 | 1.152 | .247 | .310 | .421 | .731 |
| Sean Murphy | 4.0 | .470 | .150 | .008 | .150 | .377 | 1.117 | .216 | .302 | .387 | .690 |
| Ha-Seong Kim | 3.9 | .592 | .126 | .012 | .076 | .414 | .778 | .231 | .317 | .339 | .656 |
New York Yankees — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Grisham | 4.6 | .553 | .158 | .017 | .218 | .604 | .980 | .240 | .344 | .455 | .799 |
| Ben Rice | 4.5 | .553 | .161 | .020 | .292 | .475 | .939 | .260 | .346 | .533 | .879 |
| Heliot Ramos | 4.3 | .709 | .169 | .027 | .181 | .323 | 1.038 | .272 | .333 | .464 | .797 |
| Luis García Jr. | 4.3 | .756 | .200 | .023 | .197 | .223 | .607 | .292 | .331 | .500 | .831 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 4.2 | .566 | .127 | .015 | .218 | .406 | 1.076 | .249 | .326 | .466 | .792 |
| Spencer Jones | 4.0 | .502 | .156 | .006 | .182 | .323 | 1.463 | .229 | .295 | .422 | .717 |
| George Lombard Jr. | 3.9 | .501 | .160 | .009 | .073 | .412 | 1.082 | .213 | .303 | .328 | .631 |
| Ryan McMahon | 3.8 | .470 | .120 | .004 | .168 | .405 | 1.164 | .224 | .310 | .410 | .720 |
| Austin Wells | 3.7 | .445 | .129 | .007 | .168 | .344 | .906 | .226 | .303 | .420 | .723 |
Data notes: home starter Max Fried: only 70 BF vs LHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections