Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

August 9, 2026 · Grant Holmes vs Cam Schlittler · 89°F

2.6% edge · Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves win

46.2%

New York Yankees win

53.8%

Fair line (home)

-117

Proj. total

9.85

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 4.85)New York Yankees (mean 4.99)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.85

Over

58.3%

Under

41.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	46.2%	+125	+117
New York Yankees	53.8%	-136	-117

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.8	.741	.154	.010	.223	.436	1.024	.261	.335	.456	.791
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.7	.682	.161	.019	.232	.628	1.064	.272	.377	.494	.870
Matt Olson	4.6	.588	.185	.005	.279	.503	1.182	.260	.346	.514	.861
Michael Harris II	4.5	.761	.187	.022	.228	.188	.949	.280	.314	.494	.808
Ozzie Albies	4.4	.688	.178	.011	.164	.306	.703	.258	.318	.429	.747
Dominic Smith	4.3	.666	.148	.013	.129	.326	.892	.245	.310	.389	.699
Mike Yastrzemski	4.2	.504	.144	.018	.170	.423	1.046	.226	.312	.412	.724
Austin Riley	4.0	.552	.151	.013	.180	.307	1.191	.242	.308	.436	.744
Jim Jarvis	3.9	.613	.148	.020	.054	.308	.800	.232	.299	.330	.629

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.6	.563	.162	.016	.246	.641	.998	.250	.359	.486	.845
Ben Rice	4.5	.562	.165	.022	.323	.535	.955	.273	.367	.573	.940
Heliot Ramos	4.4	.703	.172	.026	.192	.345	1.092	.273	.338	.473	.811
Luis García Jr.	4.3	.757	.202	.024	.216	.237	.651	.297	.338	.519	.857
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.2	.558	.126	.015	.236	.439	1.113	.251	.334	.482	.816
Spencer Jones	4.1	.500	.145	.007	.201	.352	1.513	.230	.301	.436	.737
George Lombard Jr.	4.0	.508	.166	.007	.080	.443	1.087	.218	.313	.337	.651
Ryan McMahon	3.9	.474	.126	.004	.176	.443	1.209	.229	.321	.423	.744
Austin Wells	3.8	.457	.132	.007	.185	.357	.947	.232	.311	.440	.752

Data notes: game-time temp 89F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections