Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

August 11, 2026 · Bryan Woo vs Ryan Weathers · 81°F

4.5% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

49.8%

New York Yankees win

50.2%

Fair line (home)

-101

Proj. total

8.76

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 4.47)New York Yankees (mean 4.29)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.76

Over

48.8%

Under

43.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	49.8%	+117	+101
New York Yankees	50.2%	-126	-101

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Taylor Ward	4.8	.629	.175	.007	.192	.558	1.188	.241	.336	.424	.760
Randy Arozarena	4.7	.593	.183	.008	.174	.444	1.250	.235	.328	.411	.739
Julio Rodríguez	4.5	.688	.174	.012	.244	.317	1.054	.268	.327	.491	.819
Dominic Canzone	4.4	.607	.160	.008	.246	.321	1.090	.250	.310	.474	.784
Cole Young	4.3	.648	.160	.018	.117	.365	.829	.242	.317	.382	.699
Cal Raleigh	4.2	.409	.119	.002	.282	.436	1.265	.217	.305	.475	.780
Brendan Donovan	4.1	.664	.169	.012	.111	.373	.658	.260	.338	.403	.741
Weston Wilson	4.0	.458	.115	.008	.139	.363	1.265	.199	.277	.351	.629
Colt Emerson	3.9	.485	.125	.012	.114	.303	1.176	.209	.280	.348	.628

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.5	.525	.149	.017	.235	.473	1.079	.233	.320	.457	.776
Ben Rice	4.4	.537	.146	.018	.306	.389	1.010	.256	.330	.536	.866
Heliot Ramos	4.3	.661	.163	.022	.183	.254	1.134	.259	.312	.450	.762
Luis García Jr.	4.2	.708	.190	.021	.211	.178	.683	.284	.317	.502	.819
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.1	.543	.120	.014	.227	.320	1.154	.243	.307	.465	.773
George Lombard Jr.	4.0	.501	.162	.010	.076	.350	1.163	.210	.288	.324	.612
Spencer Jones	3.9	.453	.131	.007	.180	.258	1.494	.216	.275	.409	.684
Ryan McMahon	3.7	.433	.129	.004	.161	.336	1.246	.216	.291	.399	.691
Austin Wells	3.6	.422	.118	.007	.168	.277	.986	.218	.285	.412	.697

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections