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7.1% edge · Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds
August 12, 2026 · Bryce Miller vs Will Warren · 86°F
Seattle Mariners win
52.7%
New York Yankees win
47.3%
Fair line (home)
+111
Proj. total
9.57
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Seattle Mariners (mean 5.02)New York Yankees (mean 4.55)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
9.57
Over
55.8%
Under
44.2%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 52.7% | +115 | -111 |
| New York Yankees | 47.3% | -125 | +111 |
Seattle Mariners — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Ward | 4.8 | .657 | .181 | .007 | .204 | .582 | 1.119 | .248 | .344 | .440 | .784 |
| Cole Young | 4.7 | .725 | .185 | .020 | .136 | .423 | .861 | .250 | .326 | .398 | .724 |
| Randy Arozarena | 4.6 | .611 | .178 | .008 | .189 | .458 | 1.166 | .244 | .338 | .432 | .770 |
| Dominic Canzone | 4.5 | .635 | .180 | .010 | .253 | .344 | 1.012 | .260 | .321 | .491 | .812 |
| Julio Rodríguez | 4.4 | .684 | .162 | .011 | .255 | .322 | .938 | .276 | .336 | .510 | .847 |
| Josh Naylor | 4.3 | .682 | .168 | .004 | .199 | .348 | .638 | .269 | .333 | .466 | .799 |
| Brendan Donovan | 4.2 | .688 | .174 | .012 | .121 | .398 | .612 | .266 | .347 | .417 | .763 |
| Cal Raleigh | 4.1 | .410 | .120 | .003 | .274 | .475 | 1.166 | .226 | .322 | .491 | .812 |
| Colt Emerson | 4.0 | .500 | .139 | .015 | .130 | .327 | 1.102 | .218 | .292 | .374 | .666 |
New York Yankees — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Grisham | 4.6 | .534 | .151 | .018 | .232 | .550 | 1.054 | .235 | .332 | .457 | .789 |
| Ben Rice | 4.5 | .539 | .153 | .020 | .305 | .445 | 1.004 | .257 | .340 | .537 | .877 |
| Spencer Jones | 4.3 | .515 | .155 | .008 | .213 | .333 | 1.653 | .224 | .289 | .428 | .717 |
| Luis García Jr. | 4.2 | .730 | .191 | .023 | .207 | .209 | .670 | .287 | .324 | .501 | .825 |
| Heliot Ramos | 4.1 | .635 | .156 | .024 | .179 | .290 | 1.064 | .262 | .322 | .457 | .778 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 4.0 | .531 | .119 | .015 | .226 | .375 | 1.114 | .245 | .320 | .473 | .794 |
| Ryan McMahon | 3.9 | .460 | .130 | .004 | .172 | .406 | 1.268 | .219 | .303 | .406 | .709 |
| Austin Wells | 3.8 | .435 | .134 | .007 | .179 | .335 | 1.011 | .220 | .294 | .419 | .713 |
| George Lombard Jr. | 3.7 | .463 | .150 | .008 | .071 | .369 | 1.051 | .212 | .300 | .328 | .628 |
Data notes: game-time temp 86F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections