Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

August 21, 2026 · Mason Fluharty vs Cam Schlittler · 72°F

6.5% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

42.2%

New York Yankees win

57.8%

Fair line (home)

-137

Proj. total

7.68

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 3.56)New York Yankees (mean 4.12)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.68

Over

45.4%

Under

42.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	42.2%	+174	+137
New York Yankees	57.8%	-191	-137

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Mason Fluharty LHP · Toronto Blue Jays	2.1	2.5	1.9	0.9	0.9
Cam Schlittler RHP · New York Yankees	5.5	5.3	4.8	1.7	1.9

Strikeout ladder

Mason Fluharty4+ 22%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Cam Schlittler4+ 80%6+ 45%8+ 15%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.7	.733	.152	.012	.038	.457	1.232	.225	.305	.295	.600
Nathan Lukes	4.5	.764	.175	.012	.103	.313	.792	.252	.310	.373	.683
Alejandro Kirk	4.4	.708	.147	.005	.140	.474	.668	.255	.340	.402	.741
Jesús Sánchez	4.3	.581	.177	.010	.161	.341	1.117	.235	.303	.407	.710
Ernie Clement	4.2	.759	.197	.014	.085	.160	.494	.261	.294	.380	.674
Kazuma Okamoto	4.1	.496	.137	.004	.183	.333	1.126	.219	.291	.404	.696
Brandon Valenzuela	4.0	.481	.114	.006	.121	.300	1.201	.196	.262	.329	.591
Charles McAdoo	3.9	.514	.129	.013	.127	.259	1.152	.217	.275	.366	.641
Myles Straw	3.8	.583	.128	.015	.038	.280	.789	.221	.284	.299	.583

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Paul Goldschmidt	4.5	.706	.175	.012	.160	.394	1.055	.257	.327	.422	.749
Amed Rosario	4.4	.786	.170	.024	.111	.216	.924	.262	.304	.394	.698
Heliot Ramos	4.3	.637	.164	.018	.174	.333	1.090	.254	.321	.438	.760
Ben Rice	4.2	.507	.145	.021	.247	.494	.937	.251	.348	.505	.852
George Lombard Jr.	4.1	.552	.171	.015	.092	.426	1.068	.229	.317	.360	.678
Trent Grisham	4.0	.465	.138	.012	.175	.537	.874	.230	.339	.430	.769
Spencer Jones	3.9	.472	.148	.011	.191	.319	1.375	.232	.302	.443	.744
José Caballero	3.8	.553	.133	.006	.085	.333	.935	.230	.310	.348	.657
Ali Sánchez	3.6	.570	.116	.007	.083	.234	.860	.229	.286	.341	.627

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections