Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

August 22, 2026 · Dylan Cease vs Ryan Weathers · 73°F

0.8% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

50.4%

New York Yankees win

49.6%

Fair line (home)

+101

Proj. total

8.11

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.16)New York Yankees (mean 3.95)

Totals

O/U line

6.5

Proj. total

8.11

Over

61.6%

Under

38.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	50.4%	-102	-101
New York Yankees	49.6%	-106	+101

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Dylan Cease RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	5.6	7.7	4.3	2.4	2.2
Ryan Weathers LHP · New York Yankees	5.3	4.7	5.1	1.8	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Dylan Cease4+ 96%6+ 80%8+ 52%

Ryan Weathers4+ 71%6+ 34%8+ 9%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.8	.782	.158	.015	.042	.466	1.206	.234	.314	.308	.622
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.6	.739	.195	.003	.204	.493	.706	.278	.361	.476	.837
Alejandro Kirk	4.5	.759	.163	.004	.147	.463	.638	.266	.346	.418	.764
George Springer	4.4	.621	.153	.016	.186	.420	.918	.246	.325	.434	.759
Kazuma Okamoto	4.3	.535	.160	.004	.203	.338	1.137	.229	.297	.426	.723
Ernie Clement	4.2	.775	.200	.015	.092	.171	.468	.269	.303	.395	.698
Daz Cameron	4.1	.552	.161	.021	.148	.284	1.039	.233	.293	.404	.697
Charles McAdoo	4.0	.558	.134	.015	.135	.257	1.129	.228	.283	.382	.665
Myles Straw	3.9	.621	.144	.016	.043	.279	.752	.231	.291	.316	.607

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.5	.482	.136	.014	.183	.624	1.206	.211	.326	.396	.722
Ben Rice	4.4	.467	.136	.017	.244	.518	1.233	.225	.323	.461	.784
Heliot Ramos	4.3	.575	.137	.015	.166	.354	1.332	.230	.302	.400	.702
Luis García Jr.	4.2	.632	.170	.023	.200	.252	.855	.261	.308	.469	.777
Spencer Jones	4.1	.443	.140	.011	.177	.352	1.662	.208	.282	.396	.678
George Lombard Jr.	4.0	.470	.151	.012	.077	.427	1.277	.202	.295	.318	.613
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	3.9	.464	.102	.012	.174	.422	1.253	.220	.310	.409	.719
Austin Wells	3.8	.418	.123	.006	.154	.377	1.116	.210	.295	.389	.684
José Caballero	3.6	.478	.122	.005	.076	.343	1.090	.211	.296	.324	.620

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections