Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

August 13, 2026 · Logan Gilbert vs Max Fried · 84°F

10.6% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

50.6%

New York Yankees win

49.4%

Fair line (home)

+103

Proj. total

8.26

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 4.26)New York Yankees (mean 3.99)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.26

Over

51.6%

Under

48.4%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	50.6%	+145	-103
New York Yankees	49.4%	-157	+103

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Randy Arozarena	4.8	.647	.192	.010	.165	.449	1.207	.242	.333	.410	.744
Julio Rodríguez	4.7	.748	.184	.013	.225	.310	.994	.273	.329	.479	.808
Dominic Canzone	4.5	.655	.177	.011	.208	.320	1.028	.251	.308	.447	.755
Cal Raleigh	4.4	.456	.128	.002	.259	.438	1.284	.214	.299	.444	.744
Josh Naylor	4.3	.704	.177	.005	.169	.328	.644	.266	.327	.440	.767
Brendan Donovan	4.2	.731	.174	.012	.099	.355	.624	.267	.340	.397	.737
Weston Wilson	4.1	.504	.126	.009	.126	.350	1.228	.205	.277	.344	.621
Jhonny Pereda	4.0	.666	.141	.007	.067	.340	.899	.243	.313	.342	.655
Leo Rivas	3.9	.517	.088	.013	.045	.458	1.094	.197	.303	.271	.573

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.5	.525	.145	.015	.233	.489	1.140	.233	.323	.455	.778
Ben Rice	4.4	.514	.147	.019	.291	.401	1.097	.249	.327	.520	.847
Spencer Jones	4.3	.493	.153	.007	.204	.283	1.738	.217	.275	.415	.690
Luis García Jr.	4.2	.701	.182	.021	.201	.188	.730	.280	.315	.489	.804
George Lombard Jr.	4.0	.502	.160	.011	.074	.362	1.252	.205	.286	.315	.601
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	3.9	.500	.117	.015	.220	.323	1.181	.237	.305	.461	.766
José Caballero	3.8	.535	.141	.006	.102	.280	1.079	.225	.295	.356	.652
Ryan McMahon	3.7	.431	.111	.004	.159	.344	1.288	.211	.289	.390	.679
Ali Sánchez	3.6	.515	.115	.005	.086	.217	1.008	.216	.269	.330	.599

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections