Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

August 23, 2026 · José Soriano vs Carlos Rodón · 75°F

2.1% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

47.1%

New York Yankees win

52.9%

Fair line (home)

-112

Proj. total

8.82

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.38)New York Yankees (mean 4.44)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.82

Over

57.1%

Under

42.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	47.1%	+118	+112
New York Yankees	52.9%	-128	-112

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
José Soriano RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	5.1	5.4	4.8	2.6	2.4
Carlos Rodón LHP · New York Yankees	4.8	4.4	4.6	2.0	2.2

Strikeout ladder

José Soriano4+ 80%6+ 45%8+ 16%

Carlos Rodón4+ 66%6+ 28%8+ 7%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.8	.748	.155	.015	.044	.541	1.197	.228	.319	.303	.623
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.7	.732	.197	.003	.221	.553	.713	.283	.374	.494	.869
Alejandro Kirk	4.6	.726	.157	.006	.151	.538	.633	.260	.352	.415	.766
George Springer	4.5	.625	.153	.015	.196	.473	.917	.251	.338	.446	.784
Kazuma Okamoto	4.4	.526	.155	.004	.220	.393	1.129	.231	.308	.440	.748
Ernie Clement	4.3	.754	.193	.014	.095	.197	.466	.262	.301	.387	.688
Daz Cameron	4.1	.546	.158	.020	.155	.327	1.050	.233	.301	.409	.710
Charles McAdoo	4.0	.538	.136	.016	.149	.308	1.134	.228	.292	.395	.687
Myles Straw	3.9	.615	.136	.016	.046	.320	.770	.228	.295	.314	.609

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.6	.560	.159	.016	.180	.654	1.007	.233	.347	.419	.765
Ben Rice	4.5	.552	.163	.021	.229	.549	1.034	.247	.347	.475	.822
Luis García Jr.	4.4	.735	.197	.025	.174	.284	.712	.276	.326	.465	.791
Cody Bellinger	4.3	.702	.170	.026	.141	.467	.671	.274	.357	.444	.800
George Lombard Jr.	4.2	.581	.176	.015	.078	.484	1.082	.232	.329	.353	.681
Spencer Jones	4.1	.512	.160	.013	.174	.375	1.458	.234	.311	.427	.737
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.0	.540	.125	.013	.159	.446	1.097	.239	.331	.418	.749
Austin Wells	3.9	.474	.145	.005	.142	.395	.965	.223	.310	.393	.702
José Caballero	3.7	.548	.140	.005	.071	.383	.939	.232	.323	.342	.665

Data notes: home starter Carlos Rodón: only 56 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections