Houston Astros vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

August 26, 2026 · Peter Lambert vs Elmer Rodríguez · 76°F

2.7% edge · New York Yankees

Houston Astros win

44.2%

New York Yankees win

55.8%

Fair line (home)

-126

Proj. total

9.78

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 4.68)New York Yankees (mean 5.10)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.78

Over

48.0%

Under

42.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	44.2%	+109	+126
New York Yankees	55.8%	-118	-126

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Peter Lambert RHP · Houston Astros	5.1	5.0	5.2	2.4	3.0
Elmer Rodríguez RHP · New York Yankees	4.6	4.0	4.4	2.2	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Peter Lambert4+ 75%6+ 40%8+ 13%

Elmer Rodríguez4+ 57%6+ 20%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.8	.801	.195	.015	.157	.317	.874	.264	.326	.422	.748
Yordan Alvarez	4.7	.668	.201	.005	.263	.758	.777	.292	.415	.549	.964
Isaac Paredes	4.6	.616	.159	.010	.195	.552	.695	.248	.355	.441	.796
Jose Altuve	4.5	.703	.168	.015	.150	.401	.812	.255	.327	.414	.741
Daulton Varsho	4.4	.526	.149	.031	.165	.395	1.008	.220	.296	.398	.695
Christian Walker	4.3	.502	.149	.008	.207	.398	1.051	.227	.310	.433	.743
Taylor Trammell	4.2	.452	.130	.026	.156	.482	1.219	.209	.309	.387	.697
Cam Smith	4.1	.536	.138	.027	.145	.355	.991	.232	.308	.403	.712
Christian Vázquez	4.0	.569	.123	.004	.093	.285	.777	.217	.280	.331	.610

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.6	.527	.152	.013	.257	.679	.986	.242	.359	.484	.842
Ben Rice	4.5	.516	.158	.020	.318	.559	1.030	.258	.358	.553	.911
Luis García Jr.	4.4	.700	.191	.025	.262	.273	.714	.285	.332	.535	.867
Cody Bellinger	4.3	.643	.158	.022	.212	.474	.690	.272	.357	.493	.850
George Lombard Jr.	4.2	.551	.169	.013	.115	.490	1.095	.232	.331	.380	.711
Spencer Jones	4.1	.479	.144	.012	.234	.375	1.453	.235	.312	.471	.783
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.0	.498	.105	.011	.231	.444	1.115	.241	.331	.474	.805
Austin Wells	3.9	.446	.127	.005	.188	.414	.986	.224	.315	.428	.743
José Caballero	3.8	.519	.137	.005	.107	.374	.949	.232	.323	.374	.696

Data notes: home starter Elmer Rodríguez: only 39 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Elmer Rodríguez: only 44 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections