Houston Astros vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

August 25, 2026 · Ethan Pecko vs Will Warren · 77°F

6.8% edge · Houston Astros

Houston Astros win

49.6%

New York Yankees win

50.4%

Fair line (home)

-102

Proj. total

9.84

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 4.98)New York Yankees (mean 4.86)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.84

Over

58.3%

Under

41.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	49.6%	+129	+102
New York Yankees	50.4%	-140	-102

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Ethan Pecko RHP · Houston Astros	4.0	3.6	4.2	1.7	2.3
Will Warren RHP · New York Yankees	4.8	4.4	4.8	2.0	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Ethan Pecko4+ 50%6+ 15%8+ 2%

Will Warren4+ 66%6+ 28%8+ 6%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.8	.784	.196	.014	.182	.296	.909	.264	.321	.437	.759
Yordan Alvarez	4.7	.671	.205	.006	.314	.687	.816	.302	.412	.594	1.006
Isaac Paredes	4.6	.596	.161	.008	.227	.498	.755	.246	.343	.460	.803
Jose Altuve	4.5	.709	.160	.016	.173	.362	.848	.258	.322	.431	.753
Daulton Varsho	4.4	.538	.148	.030	.202	.367	1.048	.230	.299	.433	.732
Christian Walker	4.3	.501	.145	.009	.231	.370	1.091	.230	.307	.452	.759
LaMonte Wade Jr.	4.2	.516	.127	.011	.125	.582	1.040	.220	.336	.368	.704
Yainer Diaz	4.1	.659	.161	.008	.179	.172	.711	.260	.296	.445	.740
Taylor Trammell	4.0	.409	.122	.023	.164	.418	1.218	.206	.297	.395	.692

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.6	.538	.154	.016	.231	.637	.984	.238	.348	.461	.809
Ben Rice	4.5	.523	.162	.021	.304	.530	1.004	.257	.352	.541	.894
Luis García Jr.	4.4	.694	.183	.022	.245	.263	.694	.277	.323	.511	.834
Cody Bellinger	4.3	.642	.160	.023	.197	.454	.664	.268	.349	.476	.825
George Lombard Jr.	4.2	.556	.171	.013	.102	.467	1.086	.229	.323	.366	.689
Spencer Jones	4.1	.482	.150	.010	.226	.366	1.428	.235	.309	.464	.773
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.0	.510	.118	.013	.221	.431	1.083	.245	.331	.474	.806
Austin Wells	3.9	.446	.137	.006	.190	.389	.971	.226	.311	.435	.746
José Caballero	3.8	.519	.134	.007	.103	.360	.936	.230	.316	.367	.683

Data notes: away starter Ethan Pecko: only 8 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Ethan Pecko: only 10 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections