Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

August 28, 2026 · Patrick Sandoval vs Cam Schlittler · 78°F

0.2% edge · New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox win

41.8%

New York Yankees win

58.2%

Fair line (home)

-139

Proj. total

8.77

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 4.08)New York Yankees (mean 4.69)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.77

Over

56.6%

Under

32.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	41.8%	+133	+139
New York Yankees	58.2%	-145	-139

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Patrick Sandoval LHP · Boston Red Sox	5.0	4.9	5.1	2.5	2.6
Cam Schlittler RHP · New York Yankees	5.4	5.6	4.8	1.9	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Patrick Sandoval4+ 73%6+ 37%8+ 11%

Cam Schlittler4+ 83%6+ 50%8+ 19%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Sogard	4.7	.663	.173	.018	.055	.485	1.155	.216	.303	.304	.607
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.6	.668	.213	.028	.158	.191	1.093	.244	.284	.413	.698
Wilyer Abreu	4.5	.550	.185	.022	.209	.449	1.157	.239	.319	.451	.770
Willson Contreras	4.4	.550	.160	.012	.203	.431	1.250	.240	.336	.446	.782
Adley Rutschman	4.3	.580	.178	.015	.133	.478	.796	.239	.328	.398	.726
Caleb Durbin	4.2	.631	.185	.015	.112	.302	.627	.249	.321	.394	.716
Mickey Gasper	4.1	.575	.162	.011	.095	.381	.896	.231	.313	.359	.672
Jarren Duran	4.0	.506	.158	.043	.114	.292	1.136	.226	.291	.387	.677
Anthony Seigler	3.9	.487	.156	.020	.078	.406	.887	.217	.306	.343	.649

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Paul Goldschmidt	4.6	.741	.193	.011	.154	.456	1.060	.265	.343	.429	.771
Ben Rice	4.5	.556	.165	.022	.257	.565	1.013	.255	.356	.505	.861
Cody Bellinger	4.4	.719	.177	.025	.167	.470	.683	.277	.358	.462	.821
Heliot Ramos	4.3	.683	.165	.019	.164	.359	1.087	.264	.335	.442	.778
Trent Grisham	4.2	.504	.150	.014	.186	.594	.906	.238	.351	.444	.796
George Lombard Jr.	4.1	.555	.164	.015	.087	.478	1.086	.229	.327	.356	.683
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.0	.535	.122	.014	.176	.449	1.105	.241	.331	.434	.765
José Caballero	3.9	.572	.148	.007	.088	.391	.972	.238	.327	.362	.689
Austin Wells	3.8	.452	.137	.006	.152	.393	.950	.224	.313	.406	.719

Data notes: away starter Patrick Sandoval: only 50 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections