Houston Astros vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

August 27, 2026 · Hayden Wesneski vs Gerrit Cole · 73°F

5.9% edge · Houston Astros

Houston Astros win

47.1%

New York Yankees win

52.9%

Fair line (home)

-112

Proj. total

9.63

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 4.75)New York Yankees (mean 4.87)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.63

Over

56.1%

Under

36.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	47.1%	+138	+112
New York Yankees	52.9%	-150	-112

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Hayden Wesneski RHP · Houston Astros	5.1	4.9	5.2	1.9	2.8
Gerrit Cole RHP · New York Yankees	5.4	5.2	5.3	1.6	2.7

Strikeout ladder

Hayden Wesneski4+ 74%6+ 37%8+ 11%

Gerrit Cole4+ 77%6+ 42%8+ 14%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.7	.754	.194	.016	.185	.245	.947	.260	.309	.436	.745
Yordan Alvarez	4.6	.649	.196	.005	.333	.587	.844	.297	.395	.600	.995
Isaac Paredes	4.5	.582	.155	.007	.239	.418	.781	.244	.328	.465	.793
Jose Altuve	4.4	.671	.157	.014	.186	.318	.867	.252	.311	.435	.747
Daulton Varsho	4.3	.505	.148	.033	.198	.308	1.086	.222	.283	.425	.709
Christian Walker	4.2	.483	.141	.008	.238	.319	1.116	.227	.296	.454	.750
Yainer Diaz	4.1	.650	.152	.008	.186	.153	.735	.254	.286	.440	.726
Taylor Trammell	4.0	.411	.126	.023	.166	.359	1.273	.203	.282	.390	.672
Cam Smith	3.9	.501	.130	.025	.165	.284	1.034	.233	.298	.425	.723

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.6	.541	.150	.014	.249	.585	1.008	.240	.343	.474	.817
Ben Rice	4.5	.524	.154	.020	.313	.483	1.027	.256	.345	.543	.888
Luis García Jr.	4.4	.701	.185	.025	.264	.236	.714	.285	.326	.534	.859
Cody Bellinger	4.3	.652	.167	.023	.199	.417	.680	.272	.348	.484	.832
George Lombard Jr.	4.2	.549	.171	.016	.116	.440	1.103	.231	.322	.380	.702
Spencer Jones	4.1	.493	.152	.011	.229	.335	1.448	.239	.308	.472	.780
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.0	.510	.115	.014	.220	.403	1.120	.244	.326	.471	.798
Austin Wells	3.8	.450	.130	.006	.193	.359	.984	.226	.306	.435	.741
José Caballero	3.7	.520	.137	.007	.104	.334	.938	.232	.315	.371	.686

Data notes: away starter Hayden Wesneski: only 58 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Hayden Wesneski: only 55 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections