Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees — Prediction & Odds

August 30, 2026 · Ranger Suarez vs Will Warren · 80°F

5.4% edge · New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox win

50.4%

New York Yankees win

49.6%

Fair line (home)

+101

Proj. total

8.88

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 4.59)New York Yankees (mean 4.29)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.88

Over

49.4%

Under

42.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	50.4%	-132	-101
New York Yankees	49.6%	+122	+101

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Ranger Suarez LHP · Boston Red Sox	4.9	4.5	5.1	1.4	2.2
Will Warren RHP · New York Yankees	4.9	4.7	4.9	1.9	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Ranger Suarez4+ 67%6+ 29%8+ 8%

Will Warren4+ 71%6+ 32%8+ 9%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Roman Anthony	4.8	.665	.203	.032	.153	.632	1.224	.253	.357	.428	.785
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.7	.727	.229	.031	.164	.202	.988	.258	.298	.434	.732
Wilyer Abreu	4.6	.593	.196	.020	.231	.468	1.040	.253	.332	.479	.811
Willson Contreras	4.5	.565	.174	.016	.235	.452	1.172	.253	.347	.485	.833
Adley Rutschman	4.4	.624	.186	.019	.145	.495	.706	.252	.341	.423	.765
Caleb Durbin	4.3	.652	.199	.015	.132	.304	.565	.257	.325	.417	.743
Jarren Duran	4.2	.537	.180	.055	.133	.314	1.105	.237	.303	.418	.721
Trevor Story	4.1	.565	.159	.005	.142	.237	1.163	.230	.281	.387	.668
Nick Sogard	3.9	.580	.145	.016	.051	.408	.870	.227	.313	.321	.633

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Paul Goldschmidt	4.6	.768	.194	.012	.149	.362	1.065	.268	.331	.427	.758
Cody Bellinger	4.5	.742	.183	.025	.163	.414	.717	.276	.346	.455	.801
Heliot Ramos	4.4	.701	.163	.019	.162	.318	1.136	.262	.324	.433	.757
Luis García Jr.	4.3	.731	.189	.024	.197	.228	.709	.284	.324	.489	.813
Amed Rosario	4.2	.781	.173	.022	.097	.197	.898	.272	.311	.401	.713
Trent Grisham	4.0	.499	.140	.013	.174	.499	.922	.234	.333	.429	.762
José Caballero	3.9	.595	.150	.007	.083	.347	1.007	.236	.314	.352	.666
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	3.8	.516	.116	.014	.172	.363	1.094	.238	.315	.430	.745
Ali Sánchez	3.7	.588	.120	.006	.082	.230	.908	.231	.285	.341	.625

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections